VPS 1-1 KuPS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VPS at 42%, yet in-form KuPS provide a compelling counter-argument — this VPS vs KuPS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
VPS host KuPS at Lemonsoft Stadion in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 June 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
VPS — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for VPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VPS's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Lemonsoft Stadion this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, KuPS stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
KuPS's form when playing away from home: 6W 4D 0L across 10 road games this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour KuPS — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for VPS, 4 for KuPS and 1 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Jul 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
VPS trading profile (55 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 63% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
KuPS trading profile (55 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VPS 73% and KuPS 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VPS 66% | KuPS 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VPS 1.35 xG and KuPS 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VPS attack 0.985 / defence 1.056 | KuPS attack 1.080 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 1.434 / away 0.908. Data: 31 VPS games / 33 KuPS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VPS 42% | Draw 31% | KuPS 27%. Fair-value odds: VPS 2.38 | Draw 3.23 | KuPS 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates VPS as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form KuPS (2.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VPS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: VPS 70% | KuPS 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VPS vs KuPS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Lemonsoft Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Jun 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VPS 42% | Draw 31% | KuPS 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG VPS 1.35 / KuPS 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: VPS attack 0.985 / def 1.056 | KuPS attack 1.080 / def 0.959 | league avg home 1.434 / away 0.908 • Poisson stance: VPS (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
VPS xG
Expected Goals
1.04
KuPS xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VPS vs KuPS kick off?
VPS vs KuPS kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 13 June 2026 at Lemonsoft Stadion.
What was the final score in VPS vs KuPS?
VPS 1 - 1 KuPS.
Where is VPS vs KuPS being played?
The match is being played at Lemonsoft Stadion.
What competition is VPS vs KuPS part of?
VPS vs KuPS is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win VPS vs KuPS?
Our statistical model gives VPS a 42% chance of winning, KuPS a 27% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making VPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in VPS vs KuPS?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both VPS and KuPS will score (BTTS).
Will VPS vs KuPS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between VPS and KuPS?
Record (8 meetings): VPS 3W | Draws 1 | KuPS 4W.
What form are VPS and KuPS in?
VPS (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. KuPS (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
VPS's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against KuPS's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. The same calculation in reverse, KuPS's attack versus VPS's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VPS Win
42%
2.37
31%
3.24
27%
3.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
VPS xG
Total xG
2.39
1.04
KuPS xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
3.72
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
15%
6.67
7%
14.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 9.5 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.9 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.7 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VPS vs KuPS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are VPS and KuPS expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for VPS and 1.04 for KuPS, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for VPS vs KuPS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
VPS's recent record stands at 19W 13D 23L from 55 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for VPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
KuPS, meanwhile, have gone 35W 10D 10L across 55 games — 2.09 PPG, with W-W-D-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours KuPS by 0.82 — a real, if not enormous, edge over VPS heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, VPS have managed 9W 7D 10L from 26 games — 1.31 PPG in front of their own supporters.
KuPS's away record stands at 12W 9D 5L across 26 trips, a 1.73 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, KuPS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
VPS are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; KuPS are on 1.84 scored and 0.98 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VPS have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 55 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VPS
Blended
KuPS
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VPS and KuPS in coming into this match?
VPS have gone 19W 13D 23L in their last 55 games (1.27 PPG), while KuPS have gone 35W 10D 10L in their last 55 (2.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VPS at home or KuPS away?
KuPS's away record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VPS at home: 1.31 PPG; KuPS away: 1.73 PPG.
Have VPS or KuPS been keeping clean sheets recently?
VPS have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, KuPS in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
VPS's record when hosting KuPS specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
VPS
2
Draws
5
KuPS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VPS and KuPS?
From 10 meetings on record, VPS have won 3, KuPS have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did VPS and KuPS last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when KuPS 3-1 VPS.
Who has won more matches between VPS and KuPS?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
VPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
KuPS see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VPS 65%, KuPS 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (VPS) and 46% (KuPS).
On the defensive side: KuPS in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VPS home games / KuPS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VPS play KuPS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of VPS's games and 54% of KuPS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VPS vs KuPS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of VPS's recent games and 46% of KuPS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do VPS and KuPS tend to score early?
VPS have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, KuPS in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
VPS and KuPS share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VPS and KuPS finished level at 1-1 at Lemonsoft Stadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VPS 1.35 xG and KuPS 1.04 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VPS attack 0.98 / defence 1.06 against KuPS attack 1.08 / defence 0.96, drawn from 31/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VPS 42% | Draw 31% | KuPS 27%, with VPS to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VPS 66%, KuPS 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VPS's trading profile (55 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
KuPS's trading profile (55 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 1.27. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.