Ilves 1-0 Turku PS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ilves at 52%, yet in-form Turku PS provide a compelling counter-argument — this Ilves vs Turku PS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ilves host Turku PS at Tammelan Stadion in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 June 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ilves — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Ilves's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Tammelan Stadion this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Ilves are significantly better at Tammelan Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, Turku PS have recorded 2W 0D 0L from 2 outings — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Turku PS have played only a handful of Veikkausliiga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Turku PS — 1.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (3.00 vs 1.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ilves 1.66 xG and Turku PS 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ilves attack 1.009 / defence 1.117 | Turku PS attack 0.923 / defence 1.123. League average goals — home 1.468 / away 0.947. Data: 32 Ilves games / 9 Turku PS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ilves 52% | Draw 27% | Turku PS 21%. Fair-value odds: Ilves 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | Turku PS 4.76. Ilves hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ilves as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Turku PS (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ilves offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.8 goals per game points in the other direction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ilves vs Turku PS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Tammelan Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Jun 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ilves 52% | Draw 27% | Turku PS 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Ilves 1.66 / Turku PS 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Ilves attack 1.009 / def 1.117 | Turku PS attack 0.923 / def 1.123 | league avg home 1.468 / away 0.947 • Poisson stance: Ilves (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Ilves xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Turku PS xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ilves vs Turku PS kick off?
Ilves vs Turku PS kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 13 June 2026 at Tammelan Stadion.
What was the final score in Ilves vs Turku PS?
Ilves 1 - 0 Turku PS.
Where is Ilves vs Turku PS being played?
The match is being played at Tammelan Stadion.
What competition is Ilves vs Turku PS part of?
Ilves vs Turku PS is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Ilves vs Turku PS?
Our statistical model gives Ilves a 52% chance of winning, Turku PS a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Ilves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ilves vs Turku PS?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Ilves and Turku PS will score (BTTS).
Will Ilves vs Turku PS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and Turku PS?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ilves and Turku PS in?
Ilves (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Turku PS (all comps): 2W-0D-0L in 2 | 3.00 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Ilves's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Turku PS's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.66. The same calculation in reverse, Turku PS's attack versus Ilves's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ilves Win
52%
1.92
27%
3.68
21%
4.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Ilves xG
Total xG
2.64
0.98
Turku PS xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
4.82
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
19%
5.28
Win to Nil
20%
5.10
4%
25.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 11.6 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.6 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ilves vs Turku PS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Ilves and Turku PS expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Ilves and 0.98 for Turku PS, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Ilves vs Turku PS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ilves come into this having played 2 games, going 0W 1D 1L for 0.50 points per game. Their last five reads D-L. It's still early in the season for Ilves, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Turku PS sit at 3.00 PPG from 2 outings (2W 0D 0L), a run that reads W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Turku PS, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Turku PS carry the stronger recent form of the two, 2.50 PPG clear of Ilves — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Ilves are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game recently; Turku PS are on 3.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Turku PS in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ilves
Early Season
Turku PS
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ilves and Turku PS in coming into this match?
Ilves have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 games (0.50 PPG), while Turku PS have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 (3.00 PPG).
Have Ilves or Turku PS been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ilves have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Turku PS in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ilves and Turku PS runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 20 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Ilves
0
Draws
0
Turku PS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and Turku PS?
From 2 meetings on record, Ilves have won 2, Turku PS have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ilves and Turku PS last play each other?
They last met on 20 July 2026, when Turku PS 1-3 Ilves.
Who has won more matches between Ilves and Turku PS?
Ilves have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ilves home games / Turku PS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ilves play Turku PS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Ilves's recent matches and 50% of Turku PS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ilves vs Turku PS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Ilves's matches and 100% of Turku PS's.
Do Ilves and Turku PS tend to score early?
Ilves have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Turku PS in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ilves edge out Turku PS 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ilves beat Turku PS 1-0 at Tammelan Stadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ilves 1.66 xG and Turku PS 0.98 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Turku PS landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ilves attack 1.01 / defence 1.12 against Turku PS attack 0.92 / defence 1.12, drawn from 32/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ilves 52% | Draw 27% | Turku PS 21%, with Ilves to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ilves 50%, Turku PS 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Turku PS arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.50. Form was overturned, with Ilves winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ilves conceded 0 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line. Turku PS managed 0 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.