Turku PS 1-0 VPS – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Turku PS at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Turku PS vs VPS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
VPS make the trip to Veritas Stadion to face Turku PS in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Saturday 30 May 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Turku PS (all games): 2W 0D 0L across 2 Veikkausliiga fixtures this term — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Turku PS have played only a handful of Veikkausliiga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
VPS have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for VPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VPS's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Turku PS. A 1.90 PPG lead over VPS (3.00 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Turku PS 1.02 xG and VPS 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Turku PS attack 0.959 / defence 0.952 | VPS attack 0.878 / defence 0.774. League average goals — home 1.379 / away 0.962. VPS's defence strength of 0.774 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 8 Turku PS games / 30 VPS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Turku PS 38% | Draw 35% | VPS 26%. Fair-value odds: Turku PS 2.63 | Draw 2.86 | VPS 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.83. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.83 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Turku PS are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Turku PS if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.83 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.5 goals per game points in the other direction.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Turku PS vs VPS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Veritas Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 30 May 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Turku PS 38% | Draw 35% | VPS 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 37% | xG Turku PS 1.02 / VPS 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Turku PS attack 0.959 / def 0.952 | VPS attack 0.878 / def 0.774 | league avg home 1.379 / away 0.962 • Poisson stance: Turku PS (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Turku PS xG
Expected Goals
0.80
VPS xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Turku PS vs VPS kick off?
Turku PS vs VPS kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 30 May 2026 at Veritas Stadion.
What was the final score in Turku PS vs VPS?
Turku PS 1 - 0 VPS.
Where is Turku PS vs VPS being played?
The match is being played at Veritas Stadion.
What competition is Turku PS vs VPS part of?
Turku PS vs VPS is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Turku PS vs VPS?
Our statistical model gives Turku PS a 38% chance of winning, VPS a 26% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Turku PS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Turku PS vs VPS?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Turku PS and VPS will score (BTTS).
Will Turku PS vs VPS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Turku PS and VPS?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Turku PS and VPS in?
Turku PS (all comps): 2W-0D-0L in 2 | 3.00 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W. VPS (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Turku PS's attack at 0.96x the league average against VPS's defence at 0.77x — combine the two and it projects 1.02 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — VPS's attack (0.88x) against Turku PS's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 8/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Turku PS Win
38%
2.60
35%
2.85
26%
3.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Turku PS xG
Total xG
1.83
0.80
VPS xG
2.60
38%
Home win
2.85
35%
Draw
3.77
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.72
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
17%
5.81
10%
10.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.1 | 12.9 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.5 | 13.2 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 8.4 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Turku PS vs VPS?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.8%.
How many goals are Turku PS and VPS expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Turku PS and 0.80 for VPS, a combined total of 1.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Turku PS vs VPS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 2 outings, Turku PS have picked up 3.00 PPG on a 2W 0D 0L record — W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Turku PS, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
VPS's form line: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games, 0.00 PPG, last five L-L. It's still early in the season for VPS, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Turku PS are the form team by 3.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against VPS.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Turku PS are averaging 3.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; VPS are on 0.50 scored and 2.50 conceded.
Defensively: Turku PS have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Turku PS
Early Season
VPS
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Turku PS and VPS in coming into this match?
Turku PS have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 games (3.00 PPG), while VPS have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 (0.00 PPG).
Have Turku PS or VPS been keeping clean sheets recently?
Turku PS have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, VPS in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since May 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 14 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Turku PS
0
Draws
0
VPS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Turku PS and VPS?
From 2 meetings on record, Turku PS have won 2, VPS have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Turku PS and VPS last play each other?
They last met on 14 August 2026, when VPS 1-3 Turku PS.
Who has won more matches between Turku PS and VPS?
Turku PS have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Turku PS home games / VPS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Turku PS play VPS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Turku PS's recent matches and 50% of VPS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Turku PS vs VPS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Turku PS's matches and 50% of VPS's.
Do Turku PS and VPS tend to score early?
Turku PS have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, VPS in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Turku PS edge out VPS 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Turku PS beat VPS 1-0 at Veritas Stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Turku PS 1.02 xG and VPS 0.80 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. VPS landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Turku PS attack 0.96 / defence 0.95 against VPS attack 0.88 / defence 0.77, drawn from 8/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Turku PS 38% | Draw 35% | VPS 26%, with Turku PS to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Turku PS 100%, VPS 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Turku PS arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Turku PS managed 1 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. VPS conceded 1 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.