Mariehamn 0-1 VPS – Result & Analysis

Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Mariehamn take on VPS.

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Fixture Analysis

Mariehamn welcome VPS to Wiklof Holding Arena in Veikkausliiga (matchday 5). Kick-off is Saturday 2 May 2026 at 15:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Mariehamn — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

At home, Mariehamn have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.

Looking at their last 10 matches, VPS stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

VPS's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Mariehamn) versus 1.10 (VPS). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

VPS have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the 8 H2H matches we hold against 1 for Mariehamn.

The 8 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 21 Sep 2025, ended Mariehamn 2–1 VPS — a Mariehamn win.

The H2H data backs the away side. VPS have won 4 of 8 H2H matches, and at 3.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.

Trading Patterns

Mariehamn in-play and half-time data (last 54 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 67%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).

VPS in-play and half-time data (last 54 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 63% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Mariehamn 57% and VPS 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mariehamn 59% | VPS 65%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Mariehamn 1.11 xG and VPS 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mariehamn attack 1.028 / defence 1.104 | VPS attack 0.782 / defence 0.864. League average goals — home 1.254 / away 1.185. VPS's attack rating of 0.782 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.02. Data: built from Mariehamn's last 26 games and VPS's last 26. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Mariehamn 34% | Draw 36% | VPS 30%. Fair-value odds: Mariehamn 2.93 | Draw 2.75 | VPS 3.38. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

Poisson projects 2.14 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 64% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Mariehamn's last 10 home games and VPS's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 8 H2H matches point the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 54%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Mariehamn 50% (last 10 home games) | VPS 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

The Poisson model's sample (Mariehamn 26 games, VPS 26) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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