Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as FF Jaro take on Turku PS.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Veikkausliiga clash, Regular Season - 5 as FF Jaro welcome Turku PS to Project Liv Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 May 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
FF Jaro — All Games: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: L W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for FF Jaro, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FF Jaro at Project Liv Arena this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Project Liv Arena this season.
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, Turku PS have recorded 2W 0D 0L from 2 outings — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Turku PS have played only a handful of Veikkausliiga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Turku PS — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (3.00 vs 1.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, FF Jaro have won 3, Turku PS 4, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2024, ended 0–3 with Turku PS winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Key Season Stats
On the season-wide numbers, FF Jaro show 10W 4D 13L from 27 outings in Veikkausliiga. Their scoring output is 1.3 per match with 1.6 conceded on average. Biggest win: 2-1 (H) / 1-3 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-4 (H) / 3-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 6 games this season. 4 clean sheets this season (0 at home, 4 away). Scored 2+ goals in 2 of 27 games (7%). Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards per game, 0.11 reds per game.
Turku PS's cumulative Veikkausliiga record this campaign: 2W 0D 0L from 2 matches. Their scoring output is 3.0 per match with 1.0 conceded on average. Biggest win: 3-0 (H) / 2-3 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. 1 clean sheet this season (1 at home, 0 away). Scored 2+ goals in 2 of 2 games (100%). Penalties this season: 2 scored / 0 missed from 2 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 0.5 yellow cards per game.
Turku PS have been the more prolific side this season at 3.00 goals per game compared to 1.30 for the hosts. Turku PS have kept their defensive record in better shape, conceding 1.00 per game versus 1.60 for the hosts. FF Jaro lead on clean sheets this season (4 vs 1). FF Jaro are averaging significantly more yellow cards per game this season — a risk factor worth noting for card markets. Turku PS score 2+ goals far more often (100% vs 7%) — a meaningful difference for goal-line markets. Turku PS have been awarded 2 penalties this season (2 scored).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FF Jaro 1.14 xG and Turku PS 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FF Jaro attack 0.834 / defence 0.991 | Turku PS attack 0.836 / defence 1.089. League average goals — home 1.254 / away 1.185. Data: 26 FF Jaro games / 4 Turku PS games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: FF Jaro 36% | Draw 36% | Turku PS 28%. Fair-value odds: FF Jaro 2.78 | Draw 2.78 | Turku PS 3.57. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 28% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.12 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (4 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FF Jaro vs Turku PS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Project Liv Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026, 14:00 UTC • Managers: FF Jaro (K. Heames) | Turku PS (Ivan Piñol) • Squad availability: no confirmed absences reported for either side • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (8 meetings): FF Jaro 3W | Draws 1 | Turku PS 4W • Goals trend: 3.00 goals/game | Total H2H goals: FF Jaro 9 – 15 Turku PS • H2H markets: BTTS 12% | Over 2.5 62% | Win rates: FF Jaro 38% / Draw 12% / Turku PS 50% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 36% / draw 36% / away 28% • Goals contradiction: H2H averages 3.00 goals/game (62% Over historically) but Poisson total xG is only 2.12 (64% Under probability) — current defensive form is likely suppressing the model vs historical scoring patterns • BTTS: H2H rate 12%, Poisson probability 46% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• FF Jaro (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-W-W • Turku PS (all comps): 2W-0D-0L in 2 | 3.00 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W • FF Jaro home split: 1.10 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | CS 0 • Turku PS away split: 3.00 PPG from 1 | GF 3.00 / GA 2.00 | CS 0 • Form edge: Turku PS lead by 1.20 PPG (3.00 vs 1.80) • xG vs form (FF Jaro): Poisson xG of 1.14 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.30 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Turku PS): Poisson projects 0.98 xG vs form scoring rate of 3.00 — model applies a discount on visitor output; home side's defensive record is the key factor • Goals contradiction — form projects ~2.9 goals/game (Over signal) but Poisson xG sum is only 2.12 (64% Under probability) — quality of opposition may be suppressing xG • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~65% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 46% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson divergence: form favours Turku PS on PPG but Poisson rates FF Jaro higher (36% vs 28% for Turku PS) — underlying attack/defence strengths may not be reflected in recent results
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FF Jaro 36% | Draw 36% | Turku PS 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 46% | xG FF Jaro 1.14 / Turku PS 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: FF Jaro attack 0.834 / def 0.991 | Turku PS attack 0.836 / def 1.089 | league avg home 1.254 / away 1.185 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
FF Jaro xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Turku PS xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FF Jaro vs Turku PS kick off?
FF Jaro vs Turku PS kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 2 May 2026 at Project Liv Arena.
What was the final score in FF Jaro vs Turku PS?
FF Jaro 2 - 2 Turku PS.
Where is FF Jaro vs Turku PS being played?
The match is being played at Project Liv Arena.
What competition is FF Jaro vs Turku PS part of?
FF Jaro vs Turku PS is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win FF Jaro vs Turku PS?
Our statistical model gives FF Jaro a 36% chance of winning, Turku PS a 28% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in FF Jaro vs Turku PS?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both FF Jaro and Turku PS will score (BTTS).
Will FF Jaro vs Turku PS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between FF Jaro and Turku PS?
• Record (8 meetings): FF Jaro 3W | Draws 1 | Turku PS 4W • Goals trend: 3.00 goals/game | Total H2H goals: FF Jaro 9 – 15 Turku PS • H2H markets: BTTS 12% | Over 2.5 62% | Win rates: FF Jaro 38% / Draw 12% / Turku PS 50% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 36% / draw 36% / away 28% • Goals contradiction: H2H averages 3.00 goals/game (62% Over historically) but Poisson total xG is only 2.12 (64% Under probability) — current defensive form is likely suppressing the model vs historical scoring patterns • BTTS: H2H rate 12%, Poisson probability 46% — no strong aligned signal
What form are FF Jaro and Turku PS in?
• FF Jaro (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-W-W • Turku PS (all comps): 2W-0D-0L in 2 | 3.00 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W • FF Jaro home split: 1.10 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | CS 0 • Turku PS away split: 3.00 PPG from 1 | GF 3.00 / GA 2.00 | CS 0 • Form edge: Turku PS lead by 1.20 PPG (3.00 vs 1.80) • xG vs form (FF Jaro): Poisson xG of 1.14 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.30 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Turku PS): Poisson projects 0.98 xG vs form scoring rate of 3.00 — model applies a discount on visitor output; home side's defensive record is the key factor • Goals contradiction — form projects ~2.9 goals/game (Over signal) but Poisson xG sum is only 2.12 (64% Under probability) — quality of opposition may be suppressing xG • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~65% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 46% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson divergence: form favours Turku PS on PPG but Poisson rates FF Jaro higher (36% vs 28% for Turku PS) — underlying attack/defence strengths may not be reflected in recent results
What do the betting odds say about FF Jaro vs Turku PS?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture