Lahti 1-1 Mariehamn – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lahti at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lahti vs Mariehamn fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Veikkausliiga clash, Regular Season - 6 as Lahti welcome Mariehamn to Lahden Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 10 May 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, Lahti have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Lahti haven't played a Veikkausliiga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Lahti's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Lahden Stadion this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Lahti are significantly better at Lahden Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mariehamn stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mariehamn away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Lahti) versus 1.50 (Mariehamn). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Lahti, 3 for Mariehamn and 2 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2024, ended 2–1 with Lahti winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Lahti trading profile (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Mariehamn trading profile (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lahti 45% versus Mariehamn 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lahti 59% | Mariehamn 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lahti 1.23 xG and Mariehamn 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lahti attack 0.840 / defence 1.211 | Mariehamn attack 0.808 / defence 1.177. League average goals — home 1.247 / away 0.970. Data: 5 Lahti games / 27 Mariehamn games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lahti 41% | Draw 32% | Mariehamn 27%. Fair-value odds: Lahti 2.44 | Draw 3.12 | Mariehamn 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lahti at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lahti offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.18 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. This conflicts with form data: Lahti 50% | Mariehamn 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lahti vs Mariehamn | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Lahden Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lahti 41% | Draw 32% | Mariehamn 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG Lahti 1.23 / Mariehamn 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Lahti attack 0.840 / def 1.211 | Mariehamn attack 0.808 / def 1.177 | league avg home 1.247 / away 0.970 • Poisson stance: Lahti (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Lahti xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Mariehamn xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lahti vs Mariehamn kick off?
Lahti vs Mariehamn kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 10 May 2026 at Lahden Stadion.
What was the final score in Lahti vs Mariehamn?
Lahti 1 - 1 Mariehamn.
Where is Lahti vs Mariehamn being played?
The match is being played at Lahden Stadion.
What competition is Lahti vs Mariehamn part of?
Lahti vs Mariehamn is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Lahti vs Mariehamn?
Our statistical model gives Lahti a 41% chance of winning, Mariehamn a 27% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Lahti the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lahti vs Mariehamn?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Lahti and Mariehamn will score (BTTS).
Will Lahti vs Mariehamn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lahti and Mariehamn?
Record (8 meetings): Lahti 3W | Draws 2 | Mariehamn 3W.
What form are Lahti and Mariehamn in?
Lahti (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. Mariehamn (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Lahti's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Mariehamn's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. The same calculation in reverse, Mariehamn's attack versus Lahti's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 1-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lahti Win
41%
2.42
32%
3.16
27%
3.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Lahti xG
Total xG
2.18
0.95
Mariehamn xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
3.70
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
16%
6.26
8%
12.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 10.7 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.2 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lahti vs Mariehamn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Lahti and Mariehamn expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Lahti and 0.95 for Mariehamn, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Lahti vs Mariehamn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lahti's recent record stands at 5W 12D 12L from 29 games, a 0.93 PPG return, with L-D-D-L-W in the last five. Lahti haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Mariehamn, meanwhile, have gone 9W 8D 12L across 29 games — 1.21 PPG, with D-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lahti on 0.93 PPG, Mariehamn on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Lahti have managed 5W 5D 4L from 14 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.93 PPG overall — Lahti are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Mariehamn's away record stands at 4W 5D 5L across 14 trips, a 1.21 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Lahti are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Mariehamn are on 1.24 scored and 1.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mariehamn in 62%.
Last 29 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lahti
Pre-Season
Mariehamn
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lahti and Mariehamn in coming into this match?
Lahti have gone 5W 12D 12L in their last 29 games (0.93 PPG), while Mariehamn have gone 9W 8D 12L in their last 29 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lahti at home or Mariehamn away?
Lahti's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lahti at home: 1.43 PPG; Mariehamn away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lahti and Mariehamn runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 20 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Sep 2022, when Mariehamn won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lahti's record when hosting Mariehamn specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Lahti
3
Draws
3
Mariehamn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lahti and Mariehamn?
From 10 meetings on record, Lahti have won 4, Mariehamn have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lahti and Mariehamn last play each other?
They last met on 20 July 2026, when Mariehamn 0-2 Lahti.
Who has won more matches between Lahti and Mariehamn?
Lahti have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lahti are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lahti 43%, Mariehamn 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Lahti) and 50% (Mariehamn).
On the defensive side: Lahti keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Lahti have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lahti home games / Mariehamn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lahti play Mariehamn?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Lahti's games and 71% of Mariehamn's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lahti vs Mariehamn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Lahti's recent games and 50% of Mariehamn's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lahti and Mariehamn tend to score early?
Lahti have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Mariehamn in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lahti and Mariehamn share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lahti and Mariehamn finished level at 1-1 at Lahden Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lahti 1.23 xG and Mariehamn 0.95 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lahti attack 0.84 / defence 1.21 against Mariehamn attack 0.81 / defence 1.18, drawn from 5/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lahti 41% | Draw 32% | Mariehamn 27%, with Lahti to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lahti 59%, Mariehamn 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lahti's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Mariehamn's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lahti 0.93 PPG, Mariehamn 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Mariehamn (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.