Mariehamn 1-1 HIFK Helsinki – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Mariehamn at 37% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mariehamn vs HIFK Helsinki encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mariehamn host HIFK Helsinki at Wiklöf Holding Arena in Veikkausliiga (matchday 14). Kick-off is Saturday 16 July 2022 at 17:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Mariehamn have gone 3W 2D 5L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L W D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Mariehamn have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, HIFK Helsinki stand at 1W 2D 7L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
HIFK Helsinki away from home: 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
On current form, Mariehamn have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.10 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Mariehamn, 0 for HIFK Helsinki and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.7 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 9 Apr 2022, ended Mariehamn 1–1 HIFK Helsinki — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Mariehamn in-play and half-time data (last 40 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
HIFK Helsinki in-play and half-time data (last 40 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 42% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mariehamn 45% versus HIFK Helsinki 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mariehamn 48% | HIFK Helsinki 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mariehamn 1.24 xG and HIFK Helsinki 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mariehamn attack 0.982 / defence 0.941 | HIFK Helsinki attack 0.917 / defence 0.906. League average goals — home 1.398 / away 1.391. Data: built from Mariehamn's last 35 games and HIFK Helsinki's last 35.
Result probabilities: Mariehamn 37% | Draw 27% | HIFK Helsinki 35%. Fair-value odds: Mariehamn 2.68 | Draw 3.65 | HIFK Helsinki 2.83. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mariehamn at 37% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mariehamn offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Mariehamn 70% (last 10 home games) | HIFK Helsinki 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mariehamn vs HIFK Helsinki | Competition: Veikkausliiga, matchday 14 | Venue: Wiklöf Holding Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 16 July 2022 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mariehamn 37% | Draw 27% | HIFK Helsinki 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Mariehamn 1.24 / HIFK Helsinki 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Mariehamn attack 0.982 / def 0.941 | HIFK Helsinki attack 0.917 / def 0.906 | league avg home 1.398 / away 1.391 • Poisson stance: Mariehamn (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Mariehamn xG
Expected Goals
1.20
HIFK Helsinki xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Mariehamn vs HIFK Helsinki FAQs
What time does Mariehamn vs HIFK Helsinki kick off?
Mariehamn vs HIFK Helsinki kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Saturday 16 July 2022 at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What was the final score in Mariehamn vs HIFK Helsinki?
Mariehamn 1 - 1 HIFK Helsinki.
Where is Mariehamn vs HIFK Helsinki being played?
The match is being played at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What competition is Mariehamn vs HIFK Helsinki part of?
Mariehamn vs HIFK Helsinki is a Veikkausliiga fixture (matchday 14) (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Mariehamn vs HIFK Helsinki?
Our statistical model gives Mariehamn a 37% chance of winning, HIFK Helsinki a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Mariehamn the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mariehamn vs HIFK Helsinki?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Mariehamn and HIFK Helsinki will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Mariehamn vs HIFK Helsinki have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Mariehamn's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against HIFK Helsinki's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. The same calculation in reverse, HIFK Helsinki's attack versus Mariehamn's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Mariehamn's last 35 games and HIFK Helsinki's last 35 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mariehamn Win
37%
2.68
27%
3.65
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Mariehamn xG
Total xG
2.45
1.20
HIFK Helsinki xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
11%
8.89
10%
9.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 10.4 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.0 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Mariehamn vs HIFK Helsinki Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Mariehamn vs HIFK Helsinki?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Mariehamn and HIFK Helsinki expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Mariehamn and 1.20 for HIFK Helsinki, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Mariehamn vs HIFK Helsinki?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Mariehamn's recent record stands at 12W 8D 20L from 40 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-W in the last five.
HIFK Helsinki, meanwhile, have gone 10W 11D 19L across 40 games — 1.02 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mariehamn on 1.10 PPG, HIFK Helsinki on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Mariehamn have managed 6W 4D 9L from their last 19 home games — 1.16 PPG in front of their own supporters.
HIFK Helsinki's away record stands at 6W 7D 6L across their last 19 away games, a 1.32 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Mariehamn are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; HIFK Helsinki are on 0.85 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 40 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mariehamn
Blended
HIFK Helsinki
Blended
Mariehamn (Home) vs HIFK Helsinki (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Mariehamn
Blended
HIFK Helsinki
Blended
❓ Mariehamn vs HIFK Helsinki Form FAQs
What form are Mariehamn and HIFK Helsinki in coming into this match?
Mariehamn have gone 12W 8D 20L in their last 40 games (1.10 PPG), while HIFK Helsinki have gone 10W 11D 19L in their last 40 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mariehamn at home or HIFK Helsinki away?
HIFK Helsinki's away record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mariehamn at home: 1.16 PPG; HIFK Helsinki away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Mariehamn or HIFK Helsinki been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mariehamn have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, HIFK Helsinki in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 5 H2H matches in our data, going back to July 2021. All of them came in Veikkausliiga. The most recent in our data was on 8 October 2022, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 18 Sep 2021, when Mariehamn won HIFK Helsinki 0-3 Mariehamn.
Mariehamn's record when hosting HIFK Helsinki specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Mariehamn
3
Draws
0
HIFK Helsinki
Recent Meetings
❓ Mariehamn vs HIFK Helsinki H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and HIFK Helsinki?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Mariehamn have won 2, HIFK Helsinki have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mariehamn and HIFK Helsinki last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 October 2022: HIFK Helsinki 2-3 Mariehamn.
Who has won more matches between Mariehamn and HIFK Helsinki?
Mariehamn have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mariehamn see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
HIFK Helsinki see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mariehamn 47%, HIFK Helsinki 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Mariehamn) and 26% (HIFK Helsinki).
On the defensive side: HIFK Helsinki in 47%; Mariehamn have failed to score in 47% of games; HIFK Helsinki in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mariehamn home games / HIFK Helsinki away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Mariehamn vs HIFK Helsinki Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Mariehamn and HIFK Helsinki matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Mariehamn's recent matches and 32% of HIFK Helsinki's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Mariehamn and HIFK Helsinki matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Mariehamn's recent games and 26% of HIFK Helsinki's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Mariehamn and HIFK Helsinki share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Wiklöf Holding Arena, Regular Season - 14, as Mariehamn and HIFK Helsinki drew 1-1 in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mariehamn 1.24 xG and HIFK Helsinki 1.20 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mariehamn attack 0.98 / defence 0.94 against HIFK Helsinki attack 0.92 / defence 0.91, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mariehamn 37% | Draw 27% | HIFK Helsinki 35%, with Mariehamn to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mariehamn 48%, HIFK Helsinki 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mariehamn's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
HIFK Helsinki's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mariehamn 1.10 PPG, HIFK Helsinki 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.