VPS 1-3 Mariehamn – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mariehamn at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this VPS vs Mariehamn fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Veikkausliiga encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Mariehamn travel to Elisa Stadion to take on VPS. The game is scheduled for Saturday 9 July 2022, 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, VPS have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for VPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Elisa Stadion, VPS have gone 0W 1D 4L this season (5 games, 0.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.20 lags behind their overall 1.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Elisa Stadion this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mariehamn stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mariehamn away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: VPS 1.20 PPG, Mariehamn 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
VPS trading profile (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
Mariehamn trading profile (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VPS 50% versus Mariehamn 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VPS 67% | Mariehamn 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VPS 0.98 xG and Mariehamn 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VPS attack 0.655 / defence 1.120 | Mariehamn attack 0.784 / defence 1.149. League average goals — home 1.297 / away 1.386. VPS's attack strength of 0.655 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 12 VPS games / 34 Mariehamn games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VPS 29% | Draw 29% | Mariehamn 42%. Fair-value odds: VPS 3.45 | Draw 3.45 | Mariehamn 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mariehamn at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mariehamn offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.19 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: VPS 40% | Mariehamn 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VPS vs Mariehamn | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Elisa Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Jul 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VPS 29% | Draw 29% | Mariehamn 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG VPS 0.98 / Mariehamn 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: VPS attack 0.655 / def 1.120 | Mariehamn attack 0.784 / def 1.149 | league avg home 1.297 / away 1.386 • Poisson stance: Mariehamn (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
VPS xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Mariehamn xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VPS vs Mariehamn kick off?
VPS vs Mariehamn kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 9 July 2022 at Elisa Stadion.
What was the final score in VPS vs Mariehamn?
VPS 1 - 3 Mariehamn.
Where is VPS vs Mariehamn being played?
The match is being played at Elisa Stadion.
What competition is VPS vs Mariehamn part of?
VPS vs Mariehamn is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win VPS vs Mariehamn?
Our statistical model gives VPS a 29% chance of winning, Mariehamn a 42% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Mariehamn the favourite.
Will both teams score in VPS vs Mariehamn?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both VPS and Mariehamn will score (BTTS).
Will VPS vs Mariehamn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between VPS and Mariehamn?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are VPS and Mariehamn in?
VPS (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Mariehamn (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
VPS's attacking strength (0.66x league average) is weighed against Mariehamn's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.98. The same calculation in reverse, Mariehamn's attack versus VPS's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 0-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mariehamn Win
29%
3.39
29%
3.46
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
VPS xG
Total xG
2.19
1.22
Mariehamn xG
3.39
29%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
38%
2.65
Win to Nil
9%
11.47
16%
6.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 13.6 | 8.3 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.3 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VPS vs Mariehamn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are VPS and Mariehamn expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for VPS and 1.22 for Mariehamn, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for VPS vs Mariehamn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
VPS's recent record stands at 5W 1D 6L from 12 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for VPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mariehamn, meanwhile, have gone 2W 5D 5L across 12 games — 0.92 PPG, with L-L-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours VPS by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Mariehamn heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, VPS have managed 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — 0.20 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.33 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Mariehamn's away record stands at 0W 1D 4L across 5 trips, a 0.20 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.92 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mariehamn's season.
The Goals Picture
VPS are averaging 2.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Mariehamn are on 0.92 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mariehamn in 67%.
Last 12 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VPS
Blended
Mariehamn
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VPS and Mariehamn in coming into this match?
VPS have gone 5W 1D 6L in their last 12 games (1.33 PPG), while Mariehamn have gone 2W 5D 5L in their last 12 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VPS at home or Mariehamn away?
VPS's home record (0.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VPS at home: 0.20 PPG; Mariehamn away: 0.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between VPS and Mariehamn runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 4 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
VPS have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Jun 2025, when VPS won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
VPS's record when hosting Mariehamn specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
VPS
3
Draws
1
Mariehamn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VPS and Mariehamn?
From 10 meetings on record, VPS have won 6, Mariehamn have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did VPS and Mariehamn last play each other?
They last met on 4 July 2026, when VPS 4-0 Mariehamn.
Who has won more matches between VPS and Mariehamn?
VPS have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
VPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VPS 40%, Mariehamn 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (VPS) and 40% (Mariehamn).
On the defensive side: VPS have failed to score in 60% of games; Mariehamn in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VPS home games / Mariehamn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VPS play Mariehamn?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of VPS's recent matches and 40% of Mariehamn's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is VPS vs Mariehamn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of VPS's recent games and 40% of Mariehamn's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do VPS and Mariehamn tend to score early?
VPS have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Mariehamn in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mariehamn cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over VPS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mariehamn beat VPS 1-3 at Elisa Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VPS 0.98 xG and Mariehamn 1.22 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Mariehamn outscored their 1.22 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VPS attack 0.66 / defence 1.12 against Mariehamn attack 0.78 / defence 1.15, drawn from 12/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VPS 29% | Draw 29% | Mariehamn 42%, with Mariehamn to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VPS 67%, Mariehamn 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VPS's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Mariehamn's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, VPS arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.92. Form was overturned, with Mariehamn winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. VPS (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mariehamn (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.