AC Oulu 3-1 Mariehamn – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Mariehamn at 43%, yet in-form AC Oulu provide a compelling counter-argument — this AC Oulu vs Mariehamn fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AC Oulu and Mariehamn meet at Raatin stadion in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 23 July 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
AC Oulu have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for AC Oulu, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Raatin stadion, AC Oulu have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Mariehamn (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mariehamn's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Veikkausliiga this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in AC Oulu's favour (1.90 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading & In-Play
AC Oulu — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Mariehamn — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AC Oulu 46% versus Mariehamn 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AC Oulu 49% | Mariehamn 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AC Oulu 1.34 xG and Mariehamn 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AC Oulu attack 0.873 / defence 1.229 | Mariehamn attack 0.898 / defence 1.063. League average goals — home 1.448 / away 1.441. Data: 36 AC Oulu games / 36 Mariehamn games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AC Oulu 32% | Draw 25% | Mariehamn 43%. Fair-value odds: AC Oulu 3.12 | Draw 4.00 | Mariehamn 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mariehamn are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form AC Oulu (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mariehamn if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.93 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: AC Oulu 50% | Mariehamn 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AC Oulu vs Mariehamn | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Raatin stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Jul 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AC Oulu 32% | Draw 25% | Mariehamn 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG AC Oulu 1.34 / Mariehamn 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: AC Oulu attack 0.873 / def 1.229 | Mariehamn attack 0.898 / def 1.063 | league avg home 1.448 / away 1.441 • Poisson stance: Mariehamn (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
AC Oulu xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Mariehamn xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AC Oulu vs Mariehamn kick off?
AC Oulu vs Mariehamn kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 23 July 2022 at Raatin stadion.
What was the final score in AC Oulu vs Mariehamn?
AC Oulu 3 - 1 Mariehamn.
Where is AC Oulu vs Mariehamn being played?
The match is being played at Raatin stadion.
What competition is AC Oulu vs Mariehamn part of?
AC Oulu vs Mariehamn is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win AC Oulu vs Mariehamn?
Our statistical model gives AC Oulu a 32% chance of winning, Mariehamn a 43% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Mariehamn the favourite.
Will both teams score in AC Oulu vs Mariehamn?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both AC Oulu and Mariehamn will score (BTTS).
Will AC Oulu vs Mariehamn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between AC Oulu and Mariehamn?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AC Oulu and Mariehamn in?
AC Oulu (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Mariehamn (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates AC Oulu's attack at 0.87x the league average against Mariehamn's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Mariehamn's attack (0.90x) against AC Oulu's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.59.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Mariehamn Win
32%
3.11
25%
4.04
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
AC Oulu xG
Total xG
2.93
1.59
Mariehamn xG
3.11
32%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
20%
4.90
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
7%
15.25
11%
8.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 8.5 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.4 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.6 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AC Oulu vs Mariehamn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are AC Oulu and Mariehamn expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for AC Oulu and 1.59 for Mariehamn, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for AC Oulu vs Mariehamn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 41 outings, AC Oulu have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 13W 8D 20L record — W-W-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for AC Oulu is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mariehamn's form line: 12W 9D 20L from 41 games, 1.10 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-D. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for AC Oulu against 1.10 for Mariehamn. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, AC Oulu have posted 1.40 PPG from 20 outings (8W 4D 8L).
On the road, Mariehamn have gone 5W 4D 11L from 20 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AC Oulu come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
AC Oulu are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Mariehamn are on 1.05 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AC Oulu
Blended
Mariehamn
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AC Oulu and Mariehamn in coming into this match?
AC Oulu have gone 13W 8D 20L in their last 41 games (1.15 PPG), while Mariehamn have gone 12W 9D 20L in their last 41 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AC Oulu at home or Mariehamn away?
AC Oulu's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AC Oulu at home: 1.40 PPG; Mariehamn away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AC Oulu have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mariehamn — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
AC Oulu
2
Draws
4
Mariehamn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AC Oulu and Mariehamn?
From 10 meetings on record, AC Oulu have won 4, Mariehamn have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AC Oulu and Mariehamn last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Mariehamn 1-1 AC Oulu.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AC Oulu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AC Oulu 45%, Mariehamn 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (AC Oulu) and 45% (Mariehamn).
On the defensive side: AC Oulu have failed to score in 30% of games; Mariehamn in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AC Oulu home games / Mariehamn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AC Oulu play Mariehamn?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of AC Oulu's recent matches and 45% of Mariehamn's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AC Oulu vs Mariehamn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of AC Oulu's recent games and 45% of Mariehamn's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AC Oulu and Mariehamn tend to score early?
AC Oulu have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Mariehamn in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AC Oulu cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Mariehamn.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AC Oulu beat Mariehamn 3-1 at Raatin stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AC Oulu 1.34 xG and Mariehamn 1.59 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. AC Oulu beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AC Oulu attack 0.87 / defence 1.23 against Mariehamn attack 0.90 / defence 1.06, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AC Oulu 32% | Draw 25% | Mariehamn 43%, with Mariehamn to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual AC Oulu win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AC Oulu 49%, Mariehamn 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AC Oulu's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Mariehamn's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AC Oulu 1.15 PPG, Mariehamn 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AC Oulu win broke the near-deadlock. AC Oulu (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm. Mariehamn (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.