Mariehamn 2-1 AC Oulu – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AC Oulu at 39% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mariehamn vs AC Oulu encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
AC Oulu make the trip to Wiklöf Holding Arena to face Mariehamn in Veikkausliiga (matchday 22). The match kicks off on Sunday 1 September 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
Mariehamn's record over their last 10 games: 1W 1D 8L (0.40 PPG). Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Mariehamn's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Mariehamn are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
AC Oulu have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
AC Oulu away from home: 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
AC Oulu arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Mariehamn, 2 for AC Oulu and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.3 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 17 May 2024, ended Mariehamn 1–1 AC Oulu — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Mariehamn — key trading statistics (last 50 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 42% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 56%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
AC Oulu — key trading statistics (last 50 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 92% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mariehamn 52% versus AC Oulu 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mariehamn 54% | AC Oulu 62%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Mariehamn surrender their half-time lead 56% of the time, while AC Oulu have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 30% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mariehamn 1.27 xG and AC Oulu 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mariehamn attack 0.636 / defence 1.148 | AC Oulu attack 0.954 / defence 1.221. League average goals — home 1.640 / away 1.248. Mariehamn's attack rating of 0.636 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.27. AC Oulu's defence rating of 1.221 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Mariehamn's projected output up. Data: built from Mariehamn's last 43 games and AC Oulu's last 43.
Result probabilities: Mariehamn 35% | Draw 26% | AC Oulu 39%. Fair-value odds: Mariehamn 2.88 | Draw 3.83 | AC Oulu 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, AC Oulu are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AC Oulu if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Mariehamn's last 10 home games and AC Oulu's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches point the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Mariehamn 50% (last 10 home games) | AC Oulu 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mariehamn vs AC Oulu | Competition: Veikkausliiga, matchday 22 | Venue: Wiklöf Holding Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 1 September 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mariehamn 35% | Draw 26% | AC Oulu 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Mariehamn 1.27 / AC Oulu 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Mariehamn attack 0.636 / def 1.148 | AC Oulu attack 0.954 / def 1.221 | league avg home 1.640 / away 1.248 • Poisson stance: AC Oulu (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Mariehamn xG
Expected Goals
1.37
AC Oulu xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Mariehamn vs AC Oulu FAQs
What time does Mariehamn vs AC Oulu kick off?
Mariehamn vs AC Oulu kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 1 September 2024 at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What was the final score in Mariehamn vs AC Oulu?
Mariehamn 2 - 1 AC Oulu.
Where is Mariehamn vs AC Oulu being played?
The match is being played at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What competition is Mariehamn vs AC Oulu part of?
Mariehamn vs AC Oulu is a Veikkausliiga fixture (matchday 22) (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Mariehamn vs AC Oulu?
Our statistical model gives Mariehamn a 35% chance of winning, AC Oulu a 39% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making AC Oulu the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mariehamn vs AC Oulu?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Mariehamn and AC Oulu will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Mariehamn vs AC Oulu have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Mariehamn's attack rating (0.64) and AC Oulu's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — AC Oulu's attack (0.95x) against Mariehamn's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from Mariehamn's last 43 games and AC Oulu's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AC Oulu Win
35%
2.88
26%
3.83
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Mariehamn xG
Total xG
2.64
1.37
AC Oulu xG
2.88
35%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
25%
3.92
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
9%
11.28
11%
9.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.7 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.4 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.9 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Mariehamn vs AC Oulu Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Mariehamn vs AC Oulu?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Mariehamn and AC Oulu expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Mariehamn and 1.37 for AC Oulu, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Mariehamn vs AC Oulu?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Mariehamn come into this having played 50 games, going 10W 13D 27L for 0.86 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L.
On the other side, AC Oulu sit at 1.20 PPG from 50 outings (16W 12D 22L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.86 PPG for Mariehamn against 1.20 for AC Oulu. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Mariehamn's home form reads 5W 8D 11L across their last 24 home games, a 0.96 PPG return.
Away from home, AC Oulu have taken 0.88 points per game from their last 24 away games (5W 6D 13L).
Attack vs Defence
Mariehamn are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; AC Oulu are on 1.36 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AC Oulu in 66%.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mariehamn
Blended
AC Oulu
Blended
Mariehamn (Home) vs AC Oulu (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Mariehamn
Blended
AC Oulu
Blended
❓ Mariehamn vs AC Oulu Form FAQs
What form are Mariehamn and AC Oulu in coming into this match?
Mariehamn have gone 10W 13D 27L in their last 50 games (0.86 PPG), while AC Oulu have gone 16W 12D 22L in their last 50 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mariehamn at home or AC Oulu away?
Mariehamn's home record (0.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mariehamn at home: 0.96 PPG; AC Oulu away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Mariehamn and AC Oulu, the earliest from July 2023. All of them came in Veikkausliiga. The most recent was on 25 July 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mariehamn have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against AC Oulu — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Mariehamn
2
Draws
4
AC Oulu
Recent Meetings
❓ Mariehamn vs AC Oulu H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and AC Oulu?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Mariehamn have won 4, AC Oulu have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mariehamn and AC Oulu last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 July 2026: Mariehamn 1-1 AC Oulu.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
AC Oulu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mariehamn 46%, AC Oulu 79% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Mariehamn and 79% for AC Oulu. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mariehamn have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mariehamn home games / AC Oulu away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Mariehamn vs AC Oulu Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Mariehamn and AC Oulu matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Mariehamn's games and 79% of AC Oulu's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Mariehamn and AC Oulu matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Mariehamn's matches and 79% of AC Oulu's.
Do Mariehamn and AC Oulu matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Mariehamn's recent matches and 92% of AC Oulu's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Mariehamn defy the odds to beat AC Oulu 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mariehamn beat AC Oulu 2-1 at Wiklöf Holding Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mariehamn 1.27 xG and AC Oulu 1.37 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mariehamn attack 0.64 / defence 1.15 against AC Oulu attack 0.95 / defence 1.22, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mariehamn 35% | Draw 26% | AC Oulu 39%, with AC Oulu to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Mariehamn win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mariehamn 54%, AC Oulu 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mariehamn's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
AC Oulu's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mariehamn 0.86 PPG, AC Oulu 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mariehamn win broke the near-deadlock. Mariehamn (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.