AC Oulu 0-1 Haka – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AC Oulu at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this AC Oulu vs Haka fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
AC Oulu host Haka at Raatin stadion in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 24 August 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, AC Oulu have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for AC Oulu, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AC Oulu's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Raatin stadion this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Haka — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Veikkausliiga fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Haka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haka away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — AC Oulu at 1.40 PPG versus Haka's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, AC Oulu have won 2, Haka 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 May 2024, ended 3–4 with Haka winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
AC Oulu trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Haka trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — AC Oulu 68% and Haka 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AC Oulu 64% | Haka 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AC Oulu 1.31 xG and Haka 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AC Oulu attack 0.760 / defence 0.776 | Haka attack 1.018 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.686 / away 1.316. AC Oulu's attack strength of 0.760 is below the league average — the 1.31 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. AC Oulu's defence rating of 0.776 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 42 AC Oulu games / 42 Haka games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AC Oulu 42% | Draw 29% | Haka 29%. Fair-value odds: AC Oulu 2.38 | Draw 3.45 | Haka 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AC Oulu as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AC Oulu offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: AC Oulu 50% | Haka 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AC Oulu vs Haka | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Raatin stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Aug 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AC Oulu 42% | Draw 29% | Haka 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG AC Oulu 1.31 / Haka 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: AC Oulu attack 0.760 / def 0.776 | Haka attack 1.018 / def 1.026 | league avg home 1.686 / away 1.316 • Poisson stance: AC Oulu (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
AC Oulu xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Haka xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AC Oulu vs Haka kick off?
AC Oulu vs Haka kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 24 August 2024 at Raatin stadion.
What was the final score in AC Oulu vs Haka?
AC Oulu 0 - 1 Haka.
Where is AC Oulu vs Haka being played?
The match is being played at Raatin stadion.
What competition is AC Oulu vs Haka part of?
AC Oulu vs Haka is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win AC Oulu vs Haka?
Our statistical model gives AC Oulu a 42% chance of winning, Haka a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making AC Oulu the favourite.
Will both teams score in AC Oulu vs Haka?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both AC Oulu and Haka will score (BTTS).
Will AC Oulu vs Haka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between AC Oulu and Haka?
Record (6 meetings): AC Oulu 2W | Draws 2 | Haka 2W.
What form are AC Oulu and Haka in?
AC Oulu (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Haka (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates AC Oulu's attack at 0.76x the league average against Haka's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Haka's attack versus AC Oulu's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AC Oulu Win
42%
2.36
29%
3.47
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
AC Oulu xG
Total xG
2.35
1.04
Haka xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
15%
6.68
8%
12.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.0 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AC Oulu vs Haka?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are AC Oulu and Haka expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for AC Oulu and 1.04 for Haka, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for AC Oulu vs Haka?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AC Oulu come into this having played 47 games, going 15W 11D 21L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L. The sample for AC Oulu is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Haka sit at 1.34 PPG from 47 outings (16W 15D 16L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Haka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: AC Oulu on 1.19 PPG, Haka on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
AC Oulu's home form reads 10W 6D 7L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Haka have taken 1.00 points per game from 23 outings (7W 2D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AC Oulu come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
AC Oulu are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Haka are on 1.45 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AC Oulu have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Haka in 64%.
Last 47 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AC Oulu
Blended
Haka
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AC Oulu and Haka in coming into this match?
AC Oulu have gone 15W 11D 21L in their last 47 games (1.19 PPG), while Haka have gone 16W 15D 16L in their last 47 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AC Oulu at home or Haka away?
AC Oulu's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AC Oulu at home: 1.57 PPG; Haka away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 19 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
AC Oulu go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Apr 2022, when AC Oulu won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AC Oulu's record when hosting Haka specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
AC Oulu
2
Draws
4
Haka
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AC Oulu and Haka?
From 10 meetings on record, AC Oulu have won 4, Haka have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AC Oulu and Haka last play each other?
They last met on 19 September 2025, when Haka 0-1 AC Oulu.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AC Oulu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Haka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AC Oulu 61%, Haka 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (AC Oulu) and 70% (Haka). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Haka in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AC Oulu home games / Haka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AC Oulu play Haka?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of AC Oulu's games and 52% of Haka's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AC Oulu vs Haka usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of AC Oulu's matches and 70% of Haka's.
Do AC Oulu and Haka tend to score early?
AC Oulu have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Haka in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Haka defy the odds to beat AC Oulu 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haka beat AC Oulu 0-1 at Raatin stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AC Oulu 1.31 xG and Haka 1.04 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. AC Oulu fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AC Oulu attack 0.76 / defence 0.78 against Haka attack 1.02 / defence 1.03, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AC Oulu 42% | Draw 29% | Haka 29%, with AC Oulu to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Haka win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AC Oulu 64%, Haka 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AC Oulu's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Haka's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AC Oulu 1.19 PPG, Haka 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Haka win broke the near-deadlock. AC Oulu (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward. Haka (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.