Gnistan 2-1 Mariehamn – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Gnistan at 51% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gnistan vs Mariehamn encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Gnistan welcome Mariehamn to Bolt Arena in Veikkausliiga (Relegation Round - 1). Kick-off is Sunday 15 September 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Gnistan — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Gnistan have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Mariehamn have recorded 1W 1D 8L — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
On the road, Mariehamn have gone 2W 1D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
On current form, Gnistan have the edge — a 1.40 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Gnistan, 1 for Mariehamn and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Aug 2024, ended Gnistan 2–1 Mariehamn — a Gnistan win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Gnistan in-play tendencies (last 24 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Mariehamn in-play tendencies (last 24 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gnistan 54% versus Mariehamn 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gnistan 58% | Mariehamn 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gnistan 1.53 xG and Mariehamn 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gnistan attack 0.836 / defence 1.030 | Mariehamn attack 0.710 / defence 1.135. League average goals — home 1.615 / away 1.248. Mariehamn's attack rating of 0.710 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.91. Data: built from Gnistan's last 22 games and Mariehamn's last 44.
Result probabilities: Gnistan 51% | Draw 27% | Mariehamn 22%. Fair-value odds: Gnistan 1.96 | Draw 3.69 | Mariehamn 4.59. Gnistan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gnistan are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gnistan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 56% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Gnistan 40% (last 10 home games) | Mariehamn 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gnistan vs Mariehamn | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Relegation Round - 1 | Venue: Bolt Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 15 September 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gnistan 51% | Draw 27% | Mariehamn 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Gnistan 1.53 / Mariehamn 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Gnistan attack 0.836 / def 1.030 | Mariehamn attack 0.710 / def 1.135 | league avg home 1.615 / away 1.248 • Poisson stance: Gnistan (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Gnistan xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Mariehamn xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Gnistan vs Mariehamn FAQs
What time does Gnistan vs Mariehamn kick off?
Gnistan vs Mariehamn kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 15 September 2024 at Bolt Arena.
What was the final score in Gnistan vs Mariehamn?
Gnistan 2 - 1 Mariehamn.
Where is Gnistan vs Mariehamn being played?
The match is being played at Bolt Arena.
What competition is Gnistan vs Mariehamn part of?
Gnistan vs Mariehamn is a Veikkausliiga fixture (Relegation Round - 1) (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Gnistan vs Mariehamn?
Our statistical model gives Gnistan a 51% chance of winning, Mariehamn a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Gnistan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gnistan vs Mariehamn?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Gnistan and Mariehamn will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Gnistan vs Mariehamn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Gnistan's attack at 0.84x the league average against Mariehamn's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Mariehamn's attack versus Gnistan's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Gnistan's last 22 games and Mariehamn's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gnistan Win
51%
1.96
27%
3.69
22%
4.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Gnistan xG
Total xG
2.45
0.91
Mariehamn xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
4.59
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
22%
4.63
Win to Nil
21%
4.87
5%
21.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.3 | 12.1 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.3 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Gnistan vs Mariehamn Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Gnistan vs Mariehamn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Gnistan and Mariehamn expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Gnistan and 0.91 for Mariehamn, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Gnistan vs Mariehamn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Gnistan's recent record stands at 8W 7D 9L from 24 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five.
Mariehamn, meanwhile, have gone 6W 6D 12L across 24 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-D-L-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gnistan on 1.29 PPG, Mariehamn on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Gnistan have managed 5W 3D 4L from their last 12 home games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mariehamn's away record stands at 2W 2D 8L across their last 12 away games, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gnistan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Gnistan are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Mariehamn are on 0.96 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 24 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gnistan
Blended
Mariehamn
Blended
Gnistan (Home) vs Mariehamn (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Gnistan
Blended
Mariehamn
Blended
❓ Gnistan vs Mariehamn Form FAQs
What form are Gnistan and Mariehamn in coming into this match?
Gnistan have gone 8W 7D 9L in their last 24 games (1.29 PPG), while Mariehamn have gone 6W 6D 12L in their last 24 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gnistan at home or Mariehamn away?
Gnistan's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gnistan at home: 1.50 PPG; Mariehamn away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2023. All of them came in Veikkausliiga. The most recent was on 11 July 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Gnistan have taken the most recent 6 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 29 Oct 2023, when Mariehamn won Mariehamn 3-0 Gnistan.
Gnistan's record when hosting Mariehamn specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Gnistan
2
Draws
1
Mariehamn
Recent Meetings
❓ Gnistan vs Mariehamn H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Gnistan and Mariehamn?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Gnistan have won 6, Mariehamn have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gnistan and Mariehamn last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 July 2026: Gnistan 4-2 Mariehamn.
Who has won more matches between Gnistan and Mariehamn?
Gnistan have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gnistan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gnistan 42%, Mariehamn 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Gnistan) and 58% (Mariehamn). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 8% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gnistan keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Gnistan have failed to score in 42% of games; Mariehamn in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gnistan home games / Mariehamn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Gnistan vs Mariehamn Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Gnistan and Mariehamn matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Gnistan's recent matches and 42% of Mariehamn's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Gnistan and Mariehamn matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Gnistan's matches and 58% of Mariehamn's.
Do Gnistan and Mariehamn matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Gnistan's recent matches and 83% of Mariehamn's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Gnistan edge out Mariehamn 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gnistan beat Mariehamn 2-1 at Bolt Arena, Relegation Round - 1, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gnistan 1.53 xG and Mariehamn 0.91 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gnistan attack 0.84 / defence 1.03 against Mariehamn attack 0.71 / defence 1.14, drawn from 22/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gnistan 51% | Draw 27% | Mariehamn 22%, with Gnistan to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gnistan 58%, Mariehamn 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gnistan's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Mariehamn's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gnistan 1.29 PPG, Mariehamn 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gnistan win broke the near-deadlock. Gnistan (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.