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Dominant KuPS run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Mariehamn.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

KuPS beat Mariehamn 4-1 at Vare Areena, Regular Season - 15, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting KuPS 1.01 xG and Mariehamn 0.86 xG, a combined 1.87. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. KuPS beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KuPS attack 0.94 / defence 0.68 against Mariehamn attack 0.91 / defence 0.85, drawn from 25/25 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it KuPS 38% | Draw 32% | Mariehamn 30%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KuPS 46%, Mariehamn 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

KuPS's trading profile (54 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Mariehamn's trading profile (54 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 0.94. Form held, and they took the win. KuPS (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm. Mariehamn (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights