KuPS 4-1 Mariehamn – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates KuPS at 38% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this KuPS vs Mariehamn encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Mariehamn make the trip to Vare Areena to face KuPS in Veikkausliiga (matchday 15). The match kicks off on Wednesday 23 April 2025 at 17:00 UK time.
Form
KuPS (all games): 7W 1D 2L across their last 10 — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home, KuPS have gone 8W 0D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Mariehamn's record over their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Mariehamn's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 0D 8L (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward KuPS. A 1.20 PPG lead over Mariehamn (2.20 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 6 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for KuPS, 1 for Mariehamn and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Aug 2024, ended KuPS 3–0 Mariehamn — a KuPS win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
KuPS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 54 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Mariehamn goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 54 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — KuPS 46% versus Mariehamn 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KuPS 46% | Mariehamn 57%). Note also that Mariehamn surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while KuPS recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KuPS 1.01 xG and Mariehamn 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KuPS attack 0.938 / defence 0.679 | Mariehamn attack 0.912 / defence 0.851. League average goals — home 1.266 / away 1.389. KuPS have a tight defence (rating 0.679), which is pulling Mariehamn's projected output down. Data: built from KuPS's last 25 games and Mariehamn's last 25. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: KuPS 38% | Draw 32% | Mariehamn 30%. Fair-value odds: KuPS 2.63 | Draw 3.13 | Mariehamn 3.34. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS Yes probability 37% | Total xG 1.87. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.87 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 63% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates KuPS as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on KuPS if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.87 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 71% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: KuPS 40% (last 10 home games) | Mariehamn 60% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (KuPS 25 games, Mariehamn 25) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KuPS vs Mariehamn | Competition: Veikkausliiga, matchday 15 | Venue: Vare Areena • Kick-off: Wednesday 23 April 2025 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KuPS 38% | Draw 32% | Mariehamn 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% (Under 71%) | BTTS Yes 37% (No 63%) | xG KuPS 1.01 / Mariehamn 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: KuPS attack 0.938 / def 0.679 | Mariehamn attack 0.912 / def 0.851 | league avg home 1.266 / away 1.389 • Poisson stance: KuPS (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
KuPS xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Mariehamn xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ KuPS vs Mariehamn FAQs
What time does KuPS vs Mariehamn kick off?
KuPS vs Mariehamn kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Wednesday 23 April 2025 at Vare Areena.
What was the final score in KuPS vs Mariehamn?
KuPS 4 - 1 Mariehamn.
Where is KuPS vs Mariehamn being played?
The match is being played at Vare Areena.
What competition is KuPS vs Mariehamn part of?
KuPS vs Mariehamn is a Veikkausliiga fixture (matchday 15) (Finland).
Who is favourite to win KuPS vs Mariehamn?
Our statistical model gives KuPS a 38% chance of winning, Mariehamn a 30% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making KuPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in KuPS vs Mariehamn?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both KuPS and Mariehamn will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (63%).
Will KuPS vs Mariehamn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (71%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates KuPS's attack at 0.94x the league average against Mariehamn's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Mariehamn's attack (0.91x) against KuPS's defence (0.68x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from KuPS's last 25 games and Mariehamn's last 25, a sample that still includes some older results.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KuPS Win
38%
2.63
32%
3.13
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
KuPS xG
Total xG
1.87
0.86
Mariehamn xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.73
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
16%
6.20
11%
9.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.4 | 13.2 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.6 | 13.4 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ KuPS vs Mariehamn Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for KuPS vs Mariehamn?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.2%.
How many goals are KuPS and Mariehamn expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for KuPS and 0.86 for Mariehamn, a combined total of 1.87.
How confident is the prediction model for KuPS vs Mariehamn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
KuPS come into this having played 54 games, going 33W 10D 11L for 2.02 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-W.
On the other side, Mariehamn sit at 0.94 PPG from 54 outings (13W 12D 29L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-W across their last five.
KuPS carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.08 PPG clear of Mariehamn — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
KuPS's home form reads 20W 1D 7L across their last 28 home games, a 2.18 PPG return.
Away from home, Mariehamn have taken 0.82 points per game from their last 28 away games (6W 5D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, KuPS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
KuPS are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 0.81 conceded per game recently; Mariehamn are on 1.02 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Defensively: KuPS have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KuPS
Blended
Mariehamn
Blended
KuPS (Home) vs Mariehamn (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
KuPS
Blended
Mariehamn
Blended
❓ KuPS vs Mariehamn Form FAQs
What form are KuPS and Mariehamn in coming into this match?
KuPS have gone 33W 10D 11L in their last 54 games (2.02 PPG), while Mariehamn have gone 13W 12D 29L in their last 54 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KuPS at home or Mariehamn away?
KuPS's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KuPS at home: 2.18 PPG; Mariehamn away: 0.82 PPG.
Have KuPS or Mariehamn been keeping clean sheets recently?
KuPS have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Mariehamn in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between KuPS and Mariehamn, the earliest from May 2022. All of them came in Veikkausliiga. The most recent was as recently as 23 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: KuPS won KuPS 3-0 Mariehamn on 25 Aug 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, KuPS have gone 3W 0D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Mariehamn — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
KuPS
3
Draws
3
Mariehamn
Recent Meetings
❓ KuPS vs Mariehamn H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between KuPS and Mariehamn?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, KuPS have won 4, Mariehamn have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did KuPS and Mariehamn last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 August 2026: KuPS 2-4 Mariehamn.
Who has won more matches between KuPS and Mariehamn?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
KuPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KuPS 43%, Mariehamn 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (KuPS) and 61% (Mariehamn). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: KuPS keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KuPS home games / Mariehamn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ KuPS vs Mariehamn Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in KuPS and Mariehamn matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of KuPS's recent matches and 61% of Mariehamn's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are KuPS and Mariehamn matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of KuPS's matches and 61% of Mariehamn's.
Do KuPS and Mariehamn matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of KuPS's recent matches and 86% of Mariehamn's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant KuPS run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Mariehamn.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KuPS beat Mariehamn 4-1 at Vare Areena, Regular Season - 15, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KuPS 1.01 xG and Mariehamn 0.86 xG, a combined 1.87. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. KuPS beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KuPS attack 0.94 / defence 0.68 against Mariehamn attack 0.91 / defence 0.85, drawn from 25/25 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it KuPS 38% | Draw 32% | Mariehamn 30%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KuPS 46%, Mariehamn 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KuPS's trading profile (54 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Mariehamn's trading profile (54 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 0.94. Form held, and they took the win. KuPS (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm. Mariehamn (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.