HJK Helsinki 0-1 Ilves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates HJK Helsinki at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as HJK Helsinki face Ilves.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ilves make the trip to Bolt Arena to face HJK Helsinki in Veikkausliiga (Championship Round - 3). The match kicks off on Saturday 28 September 2024 at 18:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
HJK Helsinki have collected 2.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
HJK Helsinki's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Ilves (all games): 7W 1D 2L across their last 10 — 2.20 points per game. Last five: L W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling, Ilves have posted 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.00 PPG for HJK Helsinki against 2.20 for Ilves. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for HJK Helsinki, 1 for Ilves and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 6 Jul 2024, ended HJK Helsinki 0–3 Ilves — a Ilves win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
HJK Helsinki goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Ilves goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — HJK Helsinki 57% versus Ilves 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (HJK Helsinki 57% | Ilves 49%). Note also that Ilves surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while HJK Helsinki recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects HJK Helsinki 1.49 xG and Ilves 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: HJK Helsinki attack 1.111 / defence 0.687 | Ilves attack 0.997 / defence 0.830. League average goals — home 1.616 / away 1.248. HJK Helsinki have a tight defence (rating 0.687), which is pulling Ilves's projected output down. Data: built from HJK Helsinki's last 44 games and Ilves's last 44.
Result probabilities: HJK Helsinki 51% | Draw 28% | Ilves 21%. Fair-value odds: HJK Helsinki 1.94 | Draw 3.62 | Ilves 4.78. HJK Helsinki hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates HJK Helsinki as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on HJK Helsinki if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 55%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: HJK Helsinki 50% (last 10 home games) | Ilves 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: HJK Helsinki vs Ilves | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Championship Round - 3 | Venue: Bolt Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 28 September 2024 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: HJK Helsinki 51% | Draw 28% | Ilves 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG HJK Helsinki 1.49 / Ilves 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: HJK Helsinki attack 1.111 / def 0.687 | Ilves attack 0.997 / def 0.830 | league avg home 1.616 / away 1.248 • Poisson stance: HJK Helsinki (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
HJK Helsinki xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Ilves xG
45%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ HJK Helsinki vs Ilves FAQs
What time does HJK Helsinki vs Ilves kick off?
HJK Helsinki vs Ilves kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Saturday 28 September 2024 at Bolt Arena.
What was the final score in HJK Helsinki vs Ilves?
HJK Helsinki 0 - 1 Ilves.
Where is HJK Helsinki vs Ilves being played?
The match is being played at Bolt Arena.
What competition is HJK Helsinki vs Ilves part of?
HJK Helsinki vs Ilves is a Veikkausliiga fixture (Championship Round - 3) (Finland).
Who is favourite to win HJK Helsinki vs Ilves?
Our statistical model gives HJK Helsinki a 51% chance of winning, Ilves a 21% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making HJK Helsinki the favourite.
Will both teams score in HJK Helsinki vs Ilves?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both HJK Helsinki and Ilves will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will HJK Helsinki vs Ilves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from HJK Helsinki's attack rating (1.11) and Ilves's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ilves's attack (1.00x) against HJK Helsinki's defence (0.69x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from HJK Helsinki's last 44 games and Ilves's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.7%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
HJK Helsinki Win
51%
1.94
28%
3.62
21%
4.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
HJK Helsinki xG
Total xG
2.34
0.85
Ilves xG
1.94
51%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
4.78
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
23%
4.43
Win to Nil
22%
4.57
5%
21.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.3 | 12.2 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.1 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ HJK Helsinki vs Ilves Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for HJK Helsinki vs Ilves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are HJK Helsinki and Ilves expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for HJK Helsinki and 0.85 for Ilves, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for HJK Helsinki vs Ilves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
HJK Helsinki come into this having played 51 games, going 28W 14D 9L for 1.92 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-D.
On the other side, Ilves sit at 1.53 PPG from 51 outings (21W 15D 15L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.92 PPG for HJK Helsinki against 1.53 for Ilves. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
HJK Helsinki's home form reads 16W 6D 3L across their last 25 home games, a 2.16 PPG return.
Away from home, Ilves have taken 1.28 points per game from their last 25 away games (8W 8D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, HJK Helsinki come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
HJK Helsinki are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Ilves are on 1.65 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: HJK Helsinki have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
HJK Helsinki
Blended
Ilves
Blended
HJK Helsinki (Home) vs Ilves (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
HJK Helsinki
Blended
Ilves
Blended
❓ HJK Helsinki vs Ilves Form FAQs
What form are HJK Helsinki and Ilves in coming into this match?
HJK Helsinki have gone 28W 14D 9L in their last 51 games (1.92 PPG), while Ilves have gone 21W 15D 15L in their last 51 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — HJK Helsinki at home or Ilves away?
HJK Helsinki's home record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — HJK Helsinki at home: 2.16 PPG; Ilves away: 1.28 PPG.
Have HJK Helsinki or Ilves been keeping clean sheets recently?
HJK Helsinki have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Ilves in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between HJK Helsinki and Ilves, the earliest from July 2023. All of them came in Veikkausliiga. The most recent was as recently as 31 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: HJK Helsinki won HJK Helsinki 5-1 Ilves on 11 Aug 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, HJK Helsinki have gone 2W 3D 1L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Ilves — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
HJK Helsinki
3
Draws
4
Ilves
Recent Meetings
❓ HJK Helsinki vs Ilves H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between HJK Helsinki and Ilves?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, HJK Helsinki have won 3, Ilves have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did HJK Helsinki and Ilves last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 August 2026: Ilves 1-2 HJK Helsinki.
Who has won more matches between HJK Helsinki and Ilves?
Ilves have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
HJK Helsinki are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Ilves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 56% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — HJK Helsinki 44%, Ilves 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (HJK Helsinki) and 32% (Ilves).
On the defensive side: HJK Helsinki keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Ilves in 32%; Ilves in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = HJK Helsinki home games / Ilves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ HJK Helsinki vs Ilves Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in HJK Helsinki and Ilves matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of HJK Helsinki's recent matches and 44% of Ilves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are HJK Helsinki and Ilves matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of HJK Helsinki's recent games and 32% of Ilves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do HJK Helsinki and Ilves matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of HJK Helsinki's recent matches and 60% of Ilves's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ilves defy the odds to beat HJK Helsinki 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ilves beat HJK Helsinki 0-1 at Bolt Arena, Championship Round - 3, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting HJK Helsinki 1.49 xG and Ilves 0.85 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. HJK Helsinki fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of HJK Helsinki attack 1.11 / defence 0.69 against Ilves attack 1.00 / defence 0.83, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it HJK Helsinki 51% | Draw 28% | Ilves 21%, with HJK Helsinki to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Ilves win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (HJK Helsinki 57%, Ilves 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
HJK Helsinki's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Ilves's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — HJK Helsinki 1.92 PPG, Ilves 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ilves win broke the near-deadlock. HJK Helsinki (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.96 scoring average — below par going forward. Ilves (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.