SJK 1-4 VPS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SJK at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SJK vs VPS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SJK host VPS at OmaSP Stadion in Veikkausliiga, Championship Round - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 28 September 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
SJK — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SJK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SJK's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at OmaSP Stadion this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, VPS have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for VPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VPS's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, SJK have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for SJK, 2 for VPS and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Aug 2024, ended 3–1 with SJK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
SJK in-play tendencies (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
VPS in-play tendencies (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SJK 60% versus VPS 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SJK 60% | VPS 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SJK 1.95 xG and VPS 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SJK attack 1.151 / defence 1.196 | VPS attack 0.871 / defence 1.047. League average goals — home 1.616 / away 1.248. Data: 44 SJK games / 44 VPS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SJK 52% | Draw 23% | VPS 25%. Fair-value odds: SJK 1.92 | Draw 4.35 | VPS 4.00. SJK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.95 / 1.30) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SJK as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SJK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.25 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SJK 70% | VPS 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SJK vs VPS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Championship Round - 3 | Venue: OmaSP Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Sep 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SJK 52% | Draw 23% | VPS 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 63% | xG SJK 1.95 / VPS 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: SJK attack 1.151 / def 1.196 | VPS attack 0.871 / def 1.047 | league avg home 1.616 / away 1.248 • Poisson stance: SJK (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
SJK xG
Expected Goals
1.30
VPS xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SJK vs VPS kick off?
SJK vs VPS kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 28 September 2024 at OmaSP Stadion.
What was the final score in SJK vs VPS?
SJK 1 - 4 VPS.
Where is SJK vs VPS being played?
The match is being played at OmaSP Stadion.
What competition is SJK vs VPS part of?
SJK vs VPS is a Championship Round - 3 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win SJK vs VPS?
Our statistical model gives SJK a 52% chance of winning, VPS a 25% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making SJK the favourite.
Will both teams score in SJK vs VPS?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both SJK and VPS will score (BTTS).
Will SJK vs VPS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and VPS?
Record (5 meetings): SJK 2W | Draws 1 | VPS 2W.
What form are SJK and VPS in?
SJK (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-D-W. VPS (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from SJK's attack rating (1.15) and VPS's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.95 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, VPS's attack versus SJK's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SJK Win
52%
1.92
23%
4.33
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
SJK xG
Total xG
3.25
1.30
VPS xG
1.92
52%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
14%
7.01
Win to Nil
14%
7.06
4%
28.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 9.8 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SJK vs VPS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are SJK and VPS expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for SJK and 1.30 for VPS, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for SJK vs VPS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SJK's recent record stands at 23W 14D 15L from 52 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for SJK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VPS, meanwhile, have gone 26W 9D 17L across 52 games — 1.67 PPG, with W-D-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for VPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SJK on 1.60 PPG, VPS on 1.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, SJK have managed 13W 5D 8L from 26 games — 1.69 PPG in front of their own supporters.
VPS's away record stands at 13W 3D 10L across 26 trips, a 1.62 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
SJK are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; VPS are on 1.52 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SJK
Blended
VPS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SJK and VPS in coming into this match?
SJK have gone 23W 14D 15L in their last 52 games (1.60 PPG), while VPS have gone 26W 9D 17L in their last 52 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SJK at home or VPS away?
SJK's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SJK at home: 1.69 PPG; VPS away: 1.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SJK and VPS runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 10 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
VPS go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Sep 2024, when VPS won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SJK's record when hosting VPS specifically: 2W 0D 4L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
SJK
1
Draws
6
VPS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and VPS?
From 10 meetings on record, SJK have won 3, VPS have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SJK and VPS last play each other?
They last met on 10 July 2026, when VPS 1-0 SJK.
Who has won more matches between SJK and VPS?
VPS have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SJK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
VPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SJK 69%, VPS 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for SJK and 58% for VPS. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 19% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VPS in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SJK home games / VPS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SJK play VPS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of SJK's games and 50% of VPS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SJK vs VPS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of SJK's matches and 58% of VPS's.
Do SJK and VPS tend to score early?
SJK have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, VPS in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant VPS run riot with a 1-4 hammering of SJK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VPS beat SJK 1-4 at OmaSP Stadion, Championship Round - 3, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SJK 1.95 xG and VPS 1.30 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. SJK fell 0.9 short of their projected output. VPS outscored their 1.30 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SJK attack 1.15 / defence 1.20 against VPS attack 0.87 / defence 1.05, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SJK 52% | Draw 23% | VPS 25%, with SJK to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a VPS win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SJK 60%, VPS 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SJK's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
VPS's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SJK 1.60 PPG, VPS 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VPS win broke the near-deadlock. SJK (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual. VPS (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.