Ilves 1-0 KuPS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ilves at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ilves vs KuPS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ilves and KuPS meet at Tammelan Stadion in Veikkausliiga, Championship Round - 2. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 24 September 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Ilves's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Ilves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ilves's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at Tammelan Stadion this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tammelan Stadion. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Ilves are significantly better at Tammelan Stadion than their overall form suggests.
KuPS have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: D W W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for KuPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KuPS away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.00 vs 2.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to KuPS, who have claimed 3 wins from 3 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Aug 2024, ended 0–1 with KuPS winning.
It is worth noting that KuPS have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Ilves — key trading statistics (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
KuPS — key trading statistics (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ilves 52% versus KuPS 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ilves 50% | KuPS 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ilves 2.07 xG and KuPS 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ilves attack 1.415 / defence 0.917 | KuPS attack 1.041 / defence 0.905. League average goals — home 1.615 / away 1.248. Ilves carry an above-average attack strength of 1.415 — their λ of 2.07 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 44 Ilves games / 44 KuPS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ilves 57% | Draw 22% | KuPS 21%. Fair-value odds: Ilves 1.75 | Draw 4.55 | KuPS 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Ilves (57%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.07 / 1.19) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ilves are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.26 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Ilves 50% | KuPS 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ilves vs KuPS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Championship Round - 2 | Venue: Tammelan Stadion • Kick-off: Tuesday 24 Sep 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ilves 57% | Draw 22% | KuPS 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 61% | xG Ilves 2.07 / KuPS 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Ilves attack 1.415 / def 0.917 | KuPS attack 1.041 / def 0.905 | league avg home 1.615 / away 1.248 • Poisson stance: Ilves (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Ilves xG
Expected Goals
1.19
KuPS xG
61%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ilves vs KuPS kick off?
Ilves vs KuPS kicked off at 17:00 on Tuesday 24 September 2024 at Tammelan Stadion.
What was the final score in Ilves vs KuPS?
Ilves 1 - 0 KuPS.
Where is Ilves vs KuPS being played?
The match is being played at Tammelan Stadion.
What competition is Ilves vs KuPS part of?
Ilves vs KuPS is a Championship Round - 2 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Ilves vs KuPS?
Our statistical model gives Ilves a 57% chance of winning, KuPS a 21% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Ilves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ilves vs KuPS?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Ilves and KuPS will score (BTTS).
Will Ilves vs KuPS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and KuPS?
Record (3 meetings): Ilves 0W | Draws 0 | KuPS 3W.
What form are Ilves and KuPS in?
Ilves (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. KuPS (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Ilves's attack rating (1.42) and KuPS's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 2.07 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — KuPS's attack (1.04x) against Ilves's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ilves Win
57%
1.75
22%
4.54
21%
4.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
2 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Ilves xG
Total xG
3.26
1.19
KuPS xG
1.75
57%
Home win
4.54
22%
Draw
4.78
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
13%
7.90
Win to Nil
17%
5.77
3%
37.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ilves vs KuPS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Ilves and KuPS expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Ilves and 1.19 for KuPS, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Ilves vs KuPS?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 50 outings, Ilves have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 20W 15D 15L record — W-L-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Ilves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
KuPS's form line: 30W 10D 10L from 50 games, 2.00 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-W. The sample for KuPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, KuPS are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ilves.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Ilves have posted 1.67 PPG from 24 outings (11W 7D 6L).
On the road, KuPS have gone 12W 9D 3L from 24 away games — 1.88 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Ilves are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; KuPS are on 1.66 scored and 0.86 conceded.
Defensively: KuPS in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ilves
Blended
KuPS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ilves and KuPS in coming into this match?
Ilves have gone 20W 15D 15L in their last 50 games (1.50 PPG), while KuPS have gone 30W 10D 10L in their last 50 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ilves at home or KuPS away?
KuPS's away record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ilves at home: 1.67 PPG; KuPS away: 1.88 PPG.
Have Ilves or KuPS been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ilves have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, KuPS in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 23 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
KuPS have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: KuPS won 0-3 on 13 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ilves have gone 2W 1D 3L from 6 meetings on their own ground against KuPS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Ilves
1
Draws
5
KuPS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and KuPS?
From 10 meetings on record, Ilves have won 4, KuPS have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ilves and KuPS last play each other?
They last met on 23 June 2026, when KuPS 4-3 Ilves.
Who has won more matches between Ilves and KuPS?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ilves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
KuPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ilves 58%, KuPS 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Ilves) and 46% (KuPS). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ilves keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; KuPS in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ilves home games / KuPS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ilves play KuPS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Ilves's games and 54% of KuPS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ilves vs KuPS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Ilves's matches and 46% of KuPS's.
Do Ilves and KuPS tend to score early?
Ilves have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, KuPS in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ilves edge out KuPS 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ilves beat KuPS 1-0 at Tammelan Stadion, Championship Round - 2, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ilves 2.07 xG and KuPS 1.19 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ilves fell 1.1 short of their projected output. KuPS landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ilves attack 1.42 / defence 0.92 against KuPS attack 1.04 / defence 0.91, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ilves 57% | Draw 22% | KuPS 21%, with Ilves to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ilves 50%, KuPS 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ilves's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
KuPS's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.50. Form was overturned, with Ilves winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ilves (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.96 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. KuPS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.