AC Oulu 1-3 Honka – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Honka at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as AC Oulu face Honka.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Honka make the trip to Raatin stadion to face AC Oulu in Veikkausliiga (matchday 8). The match kicks off on Monday 22 May 2023 at 17:00 UK time.
Form
AC Oulu (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
AC Oulu's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Honka have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Honka away from home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for AC Oulu, 1.50 for Honka — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Honka edge it 3 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.4 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 27 Aug 2022, ended AC Oulu 2–2 Honka — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.4 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
AC Oulu — key trading statistics (last 54 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Honka — key trading statistics (last 54 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 57%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AC Oulu 52% versus Honka 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AC Oulu 52% | Honka 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AC Oulu 0.84 xG and Honka 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AC Oulu attack 0.858 / defence 1.296 | Honka attack 0.850 / defence 0.763. League average goals — home 1.287 / away 1.055. Honka bring a tight defence (rating 0.763, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling AC Oulu's projected output down. AC Oulu's defence rating of 1.296 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Honka's projected output up. Data: built from AC Oulu's last 29 games and Honka's last 30.
Result probabilities: AC Oulu 23% | Draw 38% | Honka 39%. Fair-value odds: AC Oulu 4.40 | Draw 2.64 | Honka 2.54. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 38% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Honka at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 38% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Honka if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.00 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 57%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: AC Oulu 40% (last 10 home games) | Honka 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AC Oulu vs Honka | Competition: Veikkausliiga, matchday 8 | Venue: Raatin stadion • Kick-off: Monday 22 May 2023 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AC Oulu 23% | Draw 38% | Honka 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% (Under 68%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG AC Oulu 0.84 / Honka 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: AC Oulu attack 0.858 / def 1.296 | Honka attack 0.850 / def 0.763 | league avg home 1.287 / away 1.055 • Poisson stance: Honka (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
AC Oulu xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Honka xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ AC Oulu vs Honka FAQs
What time does AC Oulu vs Honka kick off?
AC Oulu vs Honka kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Monday 22 May 2023 at Raatin stadion.
What was the final score in AC Oulu vs Honka?
AC Oulu 1 - 3 Honka.
Where is AC Oulu vs Honka being played?
The match is being played at Raatin stadion.
What competition is AC Oulu vs Honka part of?
AC Oulu vs Honka is a Veikkausliiga fixture (matchday 8) (Finland).
Who is favourite to win AC Oulu vs Honka?
Our statistical model gives AC Oulu a 23% chance of winning, Honka a 39% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw — making Honka the favourite.
Will both teams score in AC Oulu vs Honka?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both AC Oulu and Honka will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will AC Oulu vs Honka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (68%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from AC Oulu's attack rating (0.86) and Honka's defence rating (0.76), the model arrives at 0.84 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Honka's attack (0.85x) against AC Oulu's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from AC Oulu's last 29 games and Honka's last 30 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 0-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Honka Win
23%
4.40
38%
2.64
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
AC Oulu xG
Total xG
2.00
1.16
Honka xG
4.40
23%
Home win
2.64
38%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
43%
2.32
Win to Nil
7%
14.05
17%
5.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 15.7 | 9.1 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.2 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ AC Oulu vs Honka Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for AC Oulu vs Honka?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are AC Oulu and Honka expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for AC Oulu and 1.16 for Honka, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for AC Oulu vs Honka?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 54 outings, AC Oulu have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 20W 11D 23L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Honka's form line: 23W 13D 18L from 54 games, 1.52 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for AC Oulu against 1.52 for Honka. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, AC Oulu have posted 1.62 PPG from their last 26 home games (12W 6D 8L).
On the road, Honka have gone 9W 6D 11L from their last 26 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AC Oulu are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Honka are on 1.69 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AC Oulu
Current Season
Honka
Blended
AC Oulu (Home) vs Honka (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
AC Oulu
Current Season
Honka
Blended
❓ AC Oulu vs Honka Form FAQs
What form are AC Oulu and Honka in coming into this match?
AC Oulu have gone 20W 11D 23L in their last 54 games (1.31 PPG), while Honka have gone 23W 13D 18L in their last 54 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AC Oulu at home or Honka away?
AC Oulu's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AC Oulu at home: 1.62 PPG; Honka away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to June 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Veikkausliiga. The most recent in our data was on 28 October 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Honka have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Honka won Honka 6-1 AC Oulu on 27 Oct 2021, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AC Oulu have gone 1W 0D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Honka — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
AC Oulu
1
Draws
6
Honka
Recent Meetings
❓ AC Oulu vs Honka H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between AC Oulu and Honka?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, AC Oulu have won 1, Honka have won 6, and 1 has been drawn.
When did AC Oulu and Honka last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 October 2023: Honka 5-0 AC Oulu.
Who has won more matches between AC Oulu and Honka?
Honka have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AC Oulu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Honka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AC Oulu 46%, Honka 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (AC Oulu) and 50% (Honka).
On the defensive side: AC Oulu have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AC Oulu home games / Honka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ AC Oulu vs Honka Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in AC Oulu and Honka matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of AC Oulu's recent matches and 58% of Honka's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are AC Oulu and Honka matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of AC Oulu's recent games and 50% of Honka's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AC Oulu and Honka matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of AC Oulu's recent matches and 62% of Honka's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Honka cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over AC Oulu.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Honka beat AC Oulu 1-3 at Raatin stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AC Oulu 0.84 xG and Honka 1.16 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Honka outscored their 1.16 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AC Oulu attack 0.86 / defence 1.30 against Honka attack 0.85 / defence 0.76, drawn from 29/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AC Oulu 23% | Draw 38% | Honka 39%, with Honka to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AC Oulu 52%, Honka 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AC Oulu's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Honka's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AC Oulu 1.31 PPG, Honka 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Honka win broke the near-deadlock. AC Oulu (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Honka (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.