Inter Turku 1-1 Mariehamn – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Inter Turku at 46%, yet in-form Mariehamn provide a compelling counter-argument — this Inter Turku vs Mariehamn fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Veikkausliiga clash, Regular Season - 8 as Inter Turku welcome Mariehamn to Veritas Stadion. Kick-off is set for Monday 22 May 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Inter Turku — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Veritas Stadion, Inter Turku have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Inter Turku are significantly better at Veritas Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mariehamn stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mariehamn's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Mariehamn's 1.60 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Inter Turku's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Inter Turku register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Mariehamn in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Inter Turku, 0 for Mariehamn and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Sep 2022, ended 3–2 with Inter Turku winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Inter Turku trading profile (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Mariehamn trading profile (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Inter Turku 57% versus Mariehamn 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Inter Turku 59% | Mariehamn 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Inter Turku 1.58 xG and Mariehamn 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Inter Turku attack 1.018 / defence 1.006 | Mariehamn attack 0.982 / defence 1.204. League average goals — home 1.287 / away 1.055. Mariehamn bring a strong defensive rating of 1.204 — this is suppressing Inter Turku's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Inter Turku games / 28 Mariehamn games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Inter Turku 46% | Draw 32% | Mariehamn 22%. Fair-value odds: Inter Turku 2.17 | Draw 3.12 | Mariehamn 4.55. Inter Turku hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Inter Turku as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Mariehamn (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Inter Turku offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Inter Turku 60% | Mariehamn 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Inter Turku vs Mariehamn | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Veritas Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 22 May 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Inter Turku 46% | Draw 32% | Mariehamn 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG Inter Turku 1.58 / Mariehamn 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Inter Turku attack 1.018 / def 1.006 | Mariehamn attack 0.982 / def 1.204 | league avg home 1.287 / away 1.055 • Poisson stance: Inter Turku (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Inter Turku xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Mariehamn xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Inter Turku vs Mariehamn kick off?
Inter Turku vs Mariehamn kicked off at 16:00 on Monday 22 May 2023 at Veritas Stadion.
What was the final score in Inter Turku vs Mariehamn?
Inter Turku 1 - 1 Mariehamn.
Where is Inter Turku vs Mariehamn being played?
The match is being played at Veritas Stadion.
What competition is Inter Turku vs Mariehamn part of?
Inter Turku vs Mariehamn is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Inter Turku vs Mariehamn?
Our statistical model gives Inter Turku a 46% chance of winning, Mariehamn a 22% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Inter Turku the favourite.
Will both teams score in Inter Turku vs Mariehamn?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Inter Turku and Mariehamn will score (BTTS).
Will Inter Turku vs Mariehamn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Inter Turku and Mariehamn?
Record (1 meetings): Inter Turku 1W | Draws 0 | Mariehamn 0W.
What form are Inter Turku and Mariehamn in?
Inter Turku (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Mariehamn (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Inter Turku's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Mariehamn's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.58. The same calculation in reverse, Mariehamn's attack versus Inter Turku's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Turku Win
46%
2.16
32%
3.11
22%
4.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Inter Turku xG
Total xG
2.62
1.04
Mariehamn xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
4.63
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
21%
4.84
Win to Nil
16%
6.12
4%
22.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 7.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.0 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Inter Turku vs Mariehamn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Inter Turku and Mariehamn expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Inter Turku and 1.04 for Mariehamn, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Inter Turku vs Mariehamn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 54 outings, Inter Turku have picked up 1.37 PPG on a 22W 8D 24L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Mariehamn's form line: 18W 10D 26L from 54 games, 1.19 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-D. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Inter Turku on 1.37 PPG, Mariehamn on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Inter Turku have posted 1.52 PPG from 27 outings (12W 5D 10L).
On the road, Mariehamn have gone 9W 4D 14L from 27 away games — 1.15 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Inter Turku are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Mariehamn are on 1.28 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Inter Turku
Current Season
Mariehamn
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Inter Turku and Mariehamn in coming into this match?
Inter Turku have gone 22W 8D 24L in their last 54 games (1.37 PPG), while Mariehamn have gone 18W 10D 26L in their last 54 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Inter Turku at home or Mariehamn away?
Inter Turku's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Inter Turku at home: 1.52 PPG; Mariehamn away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 27 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Inter Turku have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Aug 2024, when Inter Turku won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Inter Turku's record when hosting Mariehamn specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Inter Turku
3
Draws
1
Mariehamn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Inter Turku and Mariehamn?
From 10 meetings on record, Inter Turku have won 6, Mariehamn have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Inter Turku and Mariehamn last play each other?
They last met on 27 June 2026, when Mariehamn 0-2 Inter Turku.
Who has won more matches between Inter Turku and Mariehamn?
Inter Turku have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Inter Turku are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Inter Turku 52%, Mariehamn 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Inter Turku) and 44% (Mariehamn).
On the defensive side: Mariehamn in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Inter Turku home games / Mariehamn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Inter Turku play Mariehamn?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Inter Turku's recent matches and 44% of Mariehamn's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Inter Turku vs Mariehamn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Inter Turku's recent games and 44% of Mariehamn's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Inter Turku and Mariehamn tend to score early?
Inter Turku have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Mariehamn in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Inter Turku and Mariehamn share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Inter Turku and Mariehamn finished level at 1-1 at Veritas Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Inter Turku 1.58 xG and Mariehamn 1.04 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inter Turku attack 1.02 / defence 1.01 against Mariehamn attack 0.98 / defence 1.20, drawn from 26/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Inter Turku 46% | Draw 32% | Mariehamn 22%, with Inter Turku to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inter Turku 59%, Mariehamn 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Inter Turku's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Mariehamn's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Inter Turku 1.37 PPG, Mariehamn 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.