Kooteepee 0-2 SJK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SJK at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kooteepee vs SJK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Veikkausliiga clash, Regular Season - 8 as Kooteepee welcome SJK to Arto Tolsa Areena. Kick-off is set for Monday 22 May 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Kooteepee — All Games: 1W 0D 9L from 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season, averaging 0.30 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Kooteepee haven't played a Veikkausliiga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Kooteepee's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 games at Arto Tolsa Areena this term (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, SJK have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
SJK's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour SJK — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.00 vs 0.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Kooteepee have won 0, SJK 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2021, ended 0–1 with SJK winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Kooteepee in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
SJK in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kooteepee 63% versus SJK 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kooteepee 63% | SJK 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kooteepee 0.95 xG and SJK 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kooteepee attack 0.976 / defence 1.226 | SJK attack 1.080 / defence 0.758. League average goals — home 1.287 / away 1.055. SJK's defence strength of 0.758 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 7 Kooteepee games / 28 SJK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kooteepee 22% | Draw 34% | SJK 44%. Fair-value odds: Kooteepee 4.55 | Draw 2.94 | SJK 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SJK are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SJK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Kooteepee 60% | SJK 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kooteepee vs SJK | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Arto Tolsa Areena • Kick-off: Monday 22 May 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kooteepee 22% | Draw 34% | SJK 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 50% | xG Kooteepee 0.95 / SJK 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Kooteepee attack 0.976 / def 1.226 | SJK attack 1.080 / def 0.758 | league avg home 1.287 / away 1.055 • Poisson stance: SJK (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Kooteepee xG
Expected Goals
1.40
SJK xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kooteepee vs SJK kick off?
Kooteepee vs SJK kicked off at 16:00 on Monday 22 May 2023 at Arto Tolsa Areena.
What was the final score in Kooteepee vs SJK?
Kooteepee 0 - 2 SJK.
Where is Kooteepee vs SJK being played?
The match is being played at Arto Tolsa Areena.
What competition is Kooteepee vs SJK part of?
Kooteepee vs SJK is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Kooteepee vs SJK?
Our statistical model gives Kooteepee a 22% chance of winning, SJK a 44% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making SJK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kooteepee vs SJK?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Kooteepee and SJK will score (BTTS).
Will Kooteepee vs SJK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kooteepee and SJK?
Record (2 meetings): Kooteepee 0W | Draws 1 | SJK 1W.
What form are Kooteepee and SJK in?
Kooteepee (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. SJK (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Kooteepee's attack at 0.98x the league average against SJK's defence at 0.76x — combine the two and it projects 0.95 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SJK's attack versus Kooteepee's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.7%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SJK Win
22%
4.56
34%
2.90
44%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Kooteepee xG
Total xG
2.35
1.40
SJK xG
4.56
22%
Home win
2.90
34%
Draw
2.30
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
25%
4.04
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
5%
18.42
17%
5.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 13.3 | 9.3 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.7 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.0 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kooteepee vs SJK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Kooteepee and SJK expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Kooteepee and 1.40 for SJK, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Kooteepee vs SJK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 27 outings, Kooteepee have picked up 0.41 PPG on a 2W 5D 20L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. Kooteepee haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
SJK's form line: 9W 5D 13L from 27 games, 1.19 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-L. The sample for SJK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, SJK are the form team by 0.78 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kooteepee.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Kooteepee have posted 0.38 PPG from 13 outings (1W 2D 10L).
On the road, SJK have gone 3W 1D 9L from 13 away games — 0.77 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.19 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SJK's season.
The Goals Picture
Kooteepee are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 2.15 conceded per game recently; SJK are on 1.15 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kooteepee have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 27 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kooteepee
Pre-Season
SJK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kooteepee and SJK in coming into this match?
Kooteepee have gone 2W 5D 20L in their last 27 games (0.41 PPG), while SJK have gone 9W 5D 13L in their last 27 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kooteepee at home or SJK away?
SJK's away record (0.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kooteepee at home: 0.38 PPG; SJK away: 0.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kooteepee and SJK runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 3 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: SJK have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Aug 2025, when SJK won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kooteepee's record when hosting SJK specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Kooteepee
1
Draws
4
SJK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kooteepee and SJK?
From 6 meetings on record, Kooteepee have won 1, SJK have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kooteepee and SJK last play each other?
They last met on 3 August 2025, when SJK 3-0 Kooteepee.
Who has won more matches between Kooteepee and SJK?
SJK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kooteepee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
SJK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kooteepee 62%, SJK 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Kooteepee) and 31% (SJK).
On the defensive side: Kooteepee have failed to score in 31% of games; SJK in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kooteepee home games / SJK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kooteepee play SJK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Kooteepee's recent matches and 38% of SJK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kooteepee vs SJK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Kooteepee's recent games and 31% of SJK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kooteepee and SJK tend to score early?
Kooteepee have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, SJK in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SJK cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Kooteepee.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SJK beat Kooteepee 0-2 at Arto Tolsa Areena, Regular Season - 8, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kooteepee 0.95 xG and SJK 1.40 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Kooteepee fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kooteepee attack 0.98 / defence 1.23 against SJK attack 1.08 / defence 0.76, drawn from 7/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kooteepee 22% | Draw 34% | SJK 44%, with SJK to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kooteepee 63%, SJK 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kooteepee's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SJK's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, SJK arrived the stronger side — 1.19 PPG against 0.41. Form held, and they took the win. Kooteepee (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward. SJK (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.77 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.