West Ham 3-2 Liverpool – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Liverpool at 69%, yet other data sources diverge — this West Ham vs Liverpool fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
London Stadium plays host to West Ham versus Liverpool in Premier League, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Sunday 7 November 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
West Ham have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for West Ham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, West Ham have posted 2W 1D 2L at London Stadium — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at London Stadium this season.
Liverpool (all games): 6W 4D 0L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: D D W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Liverpool, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Liverpool's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 0L across 5 road games this term (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 3.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 away clean sheets from 5 games (80%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.00 for West Ham, 2.20 for Liverpool — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
West Ham goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 5 at home): BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Liverpool goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 5 at away): BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — West Ham 70% versus Liverpool 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (West Ham 70% | Liverpool 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects West Ham 1.07 xG and Liverpool 2.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: West Ham attack 1.077 / defence 1.124 | Liverpool attack 1.592 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 1.011 / away 1.419. Liverpool have an above-average attack strength of 1.592 — the away xG of 2.54 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 10 West Ham games / 10 Liverpool games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: West Ham 14% | Draw 17% | Liverpool 69%. Fair-value odds: West Ham 7.14 | Draw 5.88 | Liverpool 1.45. The model has a clear lean to Liverpool (69%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.61. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.61 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.07 / 2.54) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Liverpool at 69% — clear model lean.
Poisson projects 3.61 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: West Ham 80% | Liverpool 20%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: West Ham vs Liverpool | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: London Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Nov 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: West Ham 14% | Draw 17% | Liverpool 69% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 61% | xG West Ham 1.07 / Liverpool 2.54 • Poisson strength factors: West Ham attack 1.077 / def 1.124 | Liverpool attack 1.592 / def 0.986 | league avg home 1.011 / away 1.419 • Poisson stance: Liverpool (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
West Ham xG
Expected Goals
2.54
Liverpool xG
61%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does West Ham vs Liverpool kick off?
West Ham vs Liverpool kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 7 November 2021 at London Stadium.
What was the final score in West Ham vs Liverpool?
West Ham 3 - 2 Liverpool.
Where is West Ham vs Liverpool being played?
The match is being played at London Stadium.
What competition is West Ham vs Liverpool part of?
West Ham vs Liverpool is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win West Ham vs Liverpool?
Our statistical model gives West Ham a 14% chance of winning, Liverpool a 69% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Liverpool the favourite.
Will both teams score in West Ham vs Liverpool?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both West Ham and Liverpool will score (BTTS).
Will West Ham vs Liverpool have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between West Ham and Liverpool?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are West Ham and Liverpool in?
West Ham (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Liverpool (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates West Ham's attack at 1.08x the league average against Liverpool's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Liverpool's attack (1.59x) against West Ham's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 2.54.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 9.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (8.7%), 1-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Liverpool Win
14%
7.23
17%
5.80
69%
1.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
8.7%
Away win
1 – 3
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
West Ham xG
Total xG
3.61
2.54
Liverpool xG
7.23
14%
Home win
5.80
17%
Draw
1.45
69%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
8%
12.65
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
1%
91.43
24%
4.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 6.9 | 8.7 | 7.4 | 4.7 | 2.4 |
| 1 | 2.9 | 7.4 | 9.3 | 7.9 | 5.0 | 2.5 |
| 2 | 1.6 | 3.9 | 5.0 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.4 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for West Ham vs Liverpool?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are West Ham and Liverpool expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for West Ham and 2.54 for Liverpool, a combined total of 3.61.
How confident is the prediction model for West Ham vs Liverpool?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 10 outings, West Ham have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 6W 2D 2L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for West Ham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Liverpool's form line: 6W 4D 0L from 10 games, 2.20 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-D. The sample for Liverpool is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.00 PPG for West Ham against 2.20 for Liverpool. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, West Ham have posted 1.40 PPG from 5 outings (2W 1D 2L). That actually lags their 2.00 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Liverpool have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 away games — 2.60 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Liverpool come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
West Ham are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Liverpool are on 2.90 scored and 0.80 conceded. West Ham's scoring rate against Liverpool's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: West Ham have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Defensively: Liverpool in 60% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
West Ham
Blended
Liverpool
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are West Ham and Liverpool in coming into this match?
West Ham have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 games (2.00 PPG), while Liverpool have gone 6W 4D 0L in their last 10 (2.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — West Ham at home or Liverpool away?
Liverpool's away record (2.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — West Ham at home: 1.40 PPG; Liverpool away: 2.60 PPG.
Have West Ham or Liverpool been keeping clean sheets recently?
West Ham have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Liverpool in 60%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Liverpool go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Liverpool won 0-5 on 29 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, West Ham have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Liverpool — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
West Ham
1
Draws
8
Liverpool
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between West Ham and Liverpool?
From 10 meetings on record, West Ham have won 1, Liverpool have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did West Ham and Liverpool last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Liverpool 5-2 West Ham.
Who has won more matches between West Ham and Liverpool?
Liverpool have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — West Ham 80%, Liverpool 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for West Ham and 100% for Liverpool. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Liverpool in 80%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = West Ham home games / Liverpool away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when West Ham play Liverpool?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 80% of West Ham's recent matches and 20% of Liverpool's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is West Ham vs Liverpool usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of West Ham's matches and 100% of Liverpool's.
Shock result as West Ham defy the odds to beat Liverpool 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
West Ham beat Liverpool 3-2 at London Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting West Ham 1.07 xG and Liverpool 2.54 xG, a combined 3.61. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. West Ham beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Ham attack 1.08 / defence 1.12 against Liverpool attack 1.59 / defence 0.99, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it West Ham 14% | Draw 17% | Liverpool 69%, with Liverpool to win its most likely call at 69%. Instead the game produced a West Ham win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Ham 70%, Liverpool 80%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
West Ham's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Liverpool's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — West Ham 2.00 PPG, Liverpool 2.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the West Ham win broke the near-deadlock. West Ham (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm. Liverpool (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.