Liverpool 4-0 Arsenal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Liverpool at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Liverpool vs Arsenal fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Arsenal make the trip to Anfield to face Liverpool in Premier League, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Saturday 20 November 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Liverpool (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W D L. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Liverpool, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Liverpool's home record at Anfield: 2W 3D 0L from 5 Premier League appearances (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Arsenal have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: D D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Arsenal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Arsenal have posted 2W 1D 2L from 5 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 5 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.90 for Liverpool, 2.00 for Arsenal — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Liverpool — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at home): BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
Arsenal — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at away): BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Liverpool 46% versus Arsenal 27%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Liverpool 82% | Arsenal 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Liverpool 1.52 xG and Arsenal 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Liverpool attack 1.255 / defence 1.056 | Arsenal attack 0.662 / defence 1.101. League average goals — home 1.099 / away 1.407. Liverpool carry an above-average attack strength of 1.255 — their λ of 1.52 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 11 Liverpool games / 11 Arsenal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Liverpool 50% | Draw 26% | Arsenal 24%. Fair-value odds: Liverpool 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | Arsenal 4.17. Liverpool hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Liverpool are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Liverpool if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Liverpool 60% | Arsenal 0% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Liverpool vs Arsenal | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Anfield • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Liverpool 50% | Draw 26% | Arsenal 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 49% | xG Liverpool 1.52 / Arsenal 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Liverpool attack 1.255 / def 1.056 | Arsenal attack 0.662 / def 1.101 | league avg home 1.099 / away 1.407 • Poisson stance: Liverpool (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Liverpool xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Arsenal xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Liverpool vs Arsenal kick off?
Liverpool vs Arsenal kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at Anfield.
What was the final score in Liverpool vs Arsenal?
Liverpool 4 - 0 Arsenal.
Where is Liverpool vs Arsenal being played?
The match is being played at Anfield.
What competition is Liverpool vs Arsenal part of?
Liverpool vs Arsenal is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Liverpool vs Arsenal?
Our statistical model gives Liverpool a 50% chance of winning, Arsenal a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Liverpool the favourite.
Will both teams score in Liverpool vs Arsenal?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Liverpool and Arsenal will score (BTTS).
Will Liverpool vs Arsenal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Liverpool and Arsenal?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Liverpool and Arsenal in?
Liverpool (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-D-L. Arsenal (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Liverpool's attack rating (1.25) and Arsenal's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Arsenal's attack (0.66x) against Liverpool's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Liverpool Win
50%
2.01
26%
3.87
24%
4.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Liverpool xG
Total xG
2.50
0.98
Arsenal xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
4.08
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
22%
4.57
Win to Nil
19%
5.38
5%
18.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.2 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.3 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Liverpool vs Arsenal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Liverpool and Arsenal expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Liverpool and 0.98 for Arsenal, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Liverpool vs Arsenal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Liverpool come into this having played 11 games, going 6W 4D 1L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-L. The sample for Liverpool is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Arsenal sit at 1.82 PPG from 11 outings (6W 2D 3L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Arsenal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.00 PPG for Liverpool against 1.82 for Arsenal. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Liverpool's home form reads 2W 3D 0L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Arsenal have taken 1.40 points per game from 5 outings (2W 1D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.82 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Arsenal's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Liverpool come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Liverpool are averaging 2.82 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Arsenal are on 1.18 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Arsenal in 27%.
Defensively: Liverpool have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their games; Arsenal in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Liverpool
Blended
Arsenal
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Liverpool and Arsenal in coming into this match?
Liverpool have gone 6W 4D 1L in their last 11 games (2.00 PPG), while Arsenal have gone 6W 2D 3L in their last 11 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Liverpool at home or Arsenal away?
Liverpool's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Liverpool at home: 1.80 PPG; Arsenal away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Liverpool or Arsenal been keeping clean sheets recently?
Liverpool have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their recent games, Arsenal in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 8 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Liverpool won 4-0 on 20 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Liverpool have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Arsenal — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Liverpool
5
Draws
2
Arsenal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Liverpool and Arsenal?
From 10 meetings on record, Liverpool have won 3, Arsenal have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Liverpool and Arsenal last play each other?
They last met on 8 January 2026, when Arsenal 0-0 Liverpool.
Who has won more matches between Liverpool and Arsenal?
Liverpool have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 60% (Liverpool) and 0% (Arsenal) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Liverpool) and 20% (Arsenal).
On the defensive side: Liverpool keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Arsenal in 60%; Arsenal in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Liverpool home games / Arsenal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Liverpool play Arsenal?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Liverpool's recent matches and 0% of Arsenal's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Liverpool vs Arsenal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Liverpool's recent games and 20% of Arsenal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Liverpool run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Arsenal.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Liverpool beat Arsenal 4-0 at Anfield, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Liverpool 1.52 xG and Arsenal 0.98 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Liverpool beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Arsenal landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Liverpool attack 1.25 / defence 1.06 against Arsenal attack 0.66 / defence 1.10, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Liverpool 50% | Draw 26% | Arsenal 24%, with Liverpool to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Liverpool 82%, Arsenal 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Liverpool's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and duly kept one.
Arsenal's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Liverpool 2.00 PPG, Arsenal 1.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Liverpool win broke the near-deadlock. Liverpool (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Arsenal (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.