Aston Villa 1-4 West Ham – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates West Ham at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Aston Villa vs West Ham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
West Ham make the trip to Villa Park to face Aston Villa in Premier League, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Sunday 31 October 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
Aston Villa (all games): 3W 1D 5L across 9 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.11 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.44 goals per game and conceding 1.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Aston Villa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Aston Villa have posted 2W 1D 1L at Villa Park — 1.75 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Villa Park. Their home PPG of 1.75 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.11 — Aston Villa are significantly better at Villa Park than their overall form suggests.
West Ham have collected 1.89 PPG across 9 Premier League outings this season: 5W 2D 2L. Last five: L W L W W. They are scoring at 1.78 per game and conceding 1.11. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for West Ham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, West Ham have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 away fixtures this term (2.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.75 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.50 exceeds their overall 1.89 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
West Ham arrive in superior form — a 0.78 PPG advantage (1.89 vs 1.11) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Aston Villa half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 4 at home): BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
West Ham half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 4 at away): BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Aston Villa 56% and West Ham 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Aston Villa 67% | West Ham 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aston Villa 1.22 xG and West Ham 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aston Villa attack 1.201 / defence 1.116 | West Ham attack 0.861 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.062 / away 1.442. Data: 9 Aston Villa games / 9 West Ham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aston Villa 33% | Draw 26% | West Ham 41%. Fair-value odds: Aston Villa 3.03 | Draw 3.85 | West Ham 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates West Ham as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on West Ham if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Aston Villa 50% | West Ham 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aston Villa vs West Ham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Villa Park • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Oct 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aston Villa 33% | Draw 26% | West Ham 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Aston Villa 1.22 / West Ham 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Aston Villa attack 1.201 / def 1.116 | West Ham attack 0.861 / def 0.960 | league avg home 1.062 / away 1.442 • Poisson stance: West Ham (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Aston Villa xG
Expected Goals
1.39
West Ham xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aston Villa vs West Ham kick off?
Aston Villa vs West Ham kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 31 October 2021 at Villa Park.
What was the final score in Aston Villa vs West Ham?
Aston Villa 1 - 4 West Ham.
Where is Aston Villa vs West Ham being played?
The match is being played at Villa Park.
What competition is Aston Villa vs West Ham part of?
Aston Villa vs West Ham is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Aston Villa vs West Ham?
Our statistical model gives Aston Villa a 33% chance of winning, West Ham a 41% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making West Ham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aston Villa vs West Ham?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Aston Villa and West Ham will score (BTTS).
Will Aston Villa vs West Ham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aston Villa and West Ham?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Aston Villa and West Ham in?
Aston Villa (all comps): 3W-1D-5L in 9 | 1.11 PPG | GF 1.44 / GA 1.67 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. West Ham (all comps): 5W-2D-2L in 9 | 1.89 PPG | GF 1.78 / GA 1.11 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Aston Villa's attack at 1.20x the league average against West Ham's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — West Ham's attack (0.86x) against Aston Villa's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 1-2 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
West Ham Win
33%
3.02
26%
3.81
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Aston Villa xG
Total xG
2.61
1.39
West Ham xG
3.02
33%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
8%
12.06
12%
8.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 10.2 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.5 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.6 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aston Villa vs West Ham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Aston Villa and West Ham expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Aston Villa and 1.39 for West Ham, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Aston Villa vs West Ham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Aston Villa's recent record stands at 3W 1D 5L from 9 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Aston Villa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
West Ham, meanwhile, have gone 5W 2D 2L across 9 games — 1.89 PPG, with L-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for West Ham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours West Ham by 0.78 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Aston Villa heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Aston Villa have managed 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.11 PPG overall — Aston Villa are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
West Ham's away record stands at 3W 1D 0L across 4 trips, a 2.50 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.89 PPG overall record — West Ham travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, West Ham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Aston Villa are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; West Ham are on 1.78 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: West Ham in 67%.
Last 9 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aston Villa
Blended
West Ham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aston Villa and West Ham in coming into this match?
Aston Villa have gone 3W 1D 5L in their last 9 games (1.11 PPG), while West Ham have gone 5W 2D 2L in their last 9 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aston Villa at home or West Ham away?
West Ham's away record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aston Villa at home: 1.75 PPG; West Ham away: 2.50 PPG.
Have Aston Villa or West Ham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aston Villa have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, West Ham in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Aston Villa have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: West Ham won 1-4 on 31 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Aston Villa have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against West Ham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Aston Villa
3
Draws
3
West Ham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aston Villa and West Ham?
From 10 meetings on record, Aston Villa have won 4, West Ham have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Aston Villa and West Ham last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Aston Villa 2-0 West Ham.
Who has won more matches between Aston Villa and West Ham?
Aston Villa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aston Villa 50%, West Ham 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Aston Villa) and 50% (West Ham).
On the defensive side: Aston Villa keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; West Ham in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aston Villa home games / West Ham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aston Villa play West Ham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Aston Villa's recent matches and 50% of West Ham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Aston Villa vs West Ham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Aston Villa's recent games and 50% of West Ham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant West Ham run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Aston Villa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
West Ham beat Aston Villa 1-4 at Villa Park, Regular Season - 10, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aston Villa 1.22 xG and West Ham 1.39 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. West Ham outscored their 1.39 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aston Villa attack 1.20 / defence 1.12 against West Ham attack 0.86 / defence 0.96, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aston Villa 33% | Draw 26% | West Ham 41%, with West Ham to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aston Villa 67%, West Ham 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aston Villa's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
West Ham's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, West Ham arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Aston Villa (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. West Ham (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.