Tottenham 0-3 Nottingham Forest – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Nottingham Forest at 43% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Tottenham vs Nottingham Forest encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Tottenham and Nottingham Forest meet at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in Premier League (matchday 31). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 14:15 UK time.

Current Form

Tottenham's record over their last 10 games: 0W 3D 7L (0.30 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Tottenham at home: 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 home games — 0.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Nottingham Forest have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Nottingham Forest's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Nottingham Forest are 0.80 PPG clear of Tottenham over their recent games (1.10 vs 0.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 7 H2H matches in our data: 4 wins for Tottenham, 3 for Nottingham Forest and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 14 Dec 2025, ended Tottenham 0–3 Nottingham Forest — a Nottingham Forest win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading

Tottenham half-time and goal-timing data (last 68 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

Nottingham Forest half-time and goal-timing data (last 68 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tottenham 62% versus Nottingham Forest 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tottenham 65% | Nottingham Forest 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Tottenham 1.40 xG and Nottingham Forest 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tottenham attack 0.913 / defence 1.387 | Nottingham Forest attack 0.988 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.385 / away 1.252. Tottenham's defence rating of 1.387 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Nottingham Forest's projected output up. Data: built from Tottenham's last 68 games and Nottingham Forest's last 68.

Result probabilities: Tottenham 30% | Draw 27% | Nottingham Forest 43%. Fair-value odds: Tottenham 3.37 | Draw 3.69 | Nottingham Forest 2.31. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.40 / 1.72) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Nottingham Forest are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nottingham Forest if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.11 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Tottenham's last 10 home games and Nottingham Forest's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.7 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Tottenham 90% (last 10 home games) | Nottingham Forest 50% (last 10 away games).

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