Tottenham 1-3 Crystal Palace – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Crystal Palace at 41% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Tottenham vs Crystal Palace encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

Tottenham welcome Crystal Palace to Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in Premier League (matchday 29). Kick-off is Thursday 5 March 2026 at 20:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Tottenham have gone 0W 4D 6L — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Tottenham's home record over their last 10 home games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Crystal Palace stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Crystal Palace's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

Form points away from home here. Crystal Palace's 0.90 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Tottenham's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H Record

The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Tottenham: 6 wins from 8 H2H matches against 2 for Crystal Palace, with 0 draws.

The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 Dec 2025, ended Tottenham 1–0 Crystal Palace — a Tottenham win.

The head-to-head data gives Tottenham an edge — 6 wins from 8 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.

Trading Patterns

Tottenham in-play and half-time data (last 66 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

Crystal Palace in-play and half-time data (last 66 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tottenham 61% versus Crystal Palace 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tottenham 65% | Crystal Palace 46%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Tottenham surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Crystal Palace have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Tottenham 1.24 xG and Crystal Palace 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tottenham attack 0.911 / defence 1.293 | Crystal Palace attack 0.884 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.413 / away 1.293. Tottenham's defence rating of 1.293 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Crystal Palace's projected output up. Data: built from Tottenham's last 66 games and Crystal Palace's last 66.

Result probabilities: Tottenham 30% | Draw 29% | Crystal Palace 41%. Fair-value odds: Tottenham 3.32 | Draw 3.47 | Crystal Palace 2.43. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Crystal Palace at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crystal Palace offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Tottenham 80% (last 10 home games) | Crystal Palace 50% (last 10 away games).

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