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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Sunderland edge out Crystal Palace 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sunderland beat Crystal Palace 2-1 at Stadium of Light, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sunderland 1.20 xG and Crystal Palace 0.94 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Sunderland beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sunderland attack 0.87 / defence 0.85 against Crystal Palace attack 0.90 / defence 0.91, drawn from 21/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sunderland 39% | Draw 35% | Crystal Palace 26%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sunderland 39%, Crystal Palace 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sunderland's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Crystal Palace's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sunderland 1.49 PPG, Crystal Palace 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sunderland win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights