Sunderland 2-1 Crystal Palace – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Sunderland at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sunderland vs Crystal Palace fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sunderland and Crystal Palace meet at Stadium of Light in Premier League, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 17 January 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sunderland have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D D D D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sunderland, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadium of Light, Sunderland have gone 5W 5D 0L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Sunderland are significantly better at Stadium of Light than their overall form suggests.
Crystal Palace's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Crystal Palace, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Crystal Palace's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Sunderland, 0 for Crystal Palace and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Sunderland half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Crystal Palace half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sunderland 48% versus Crystal Palace 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sunderland 39% | Crystal Palace 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sunderland 1.20 xG and Crystal Palace 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sunderland attack 0.868 / defence 0.851 | Crystal Palace attack 0.895 / defence 0.913. League average goals — home 1.513 / away 1.240. Data: 21 Sunderland games / 59 Crystal Palace games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sunderland 39% | Draw 35% | Crystal Palace 26%. Fair-value odds: Sunderland 2.56 | Draw 2.86 | Crystal Palace 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sunderland at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sunderland if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.14 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Sunderland 60% | Crystal Palace 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sunderland vs Crystal Palace | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadium of Light • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Jan 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sunderland 39% | Draw 35% | Crystal Palace 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 46% | xG Sunderland 1.20 / Crystal Palace 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Sunderland attack 0.868 / def 0.851 | Crystal Palace attack 0.895 / def 0.913 | league avg home 1.513 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Sunderland (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Sunderland xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Crystal Palace xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sunderland vs Crystal Palace kick off?
Sunderland vs Crystal Palace kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 17 January 2026 at Stadium of Light.
What was the final score in Sunderland vs Crystal Palace?
Sunderland 2 - 1 Crystal Palace.
Where is Sunderland vs Crystal Palace being played?
The match is being played at Stadium of Light.
What competition is Sunderland vs Crystal Palace part of?
Sunderland vs Crystal Palace is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Sunderland vs Crystal Palace?
Our statistical model gives Sunderland a 39% chance of winning, Crystal Palace a 26% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Sunderland the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Crystal Palace?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Sunderland and Crystal Palace will score (BTTS).
Will Sunderland vs Crystal Palace have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Crystal Palace?
Record (1 meetings): Sunderland 0W | Draws 1 | Crystal Palace 0W.
What form are Sunderland and Crystal Palace in?
Sunderland (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-D-L. Crystal Palace (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sunderland's attack at 0.87x the league average against Crystal Palace's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Crystal Palace's attack (0.90x) against Sunderland's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 21/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sunderland Win
39%
2.57
35%
2.84
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Sunderland xG
Total xG
2.14
0.94
Crystal Palace xG
2.57
39%
Home win
2.84
35%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
15%
6.62
8%
12.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 11.1 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.3 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.0 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sunderland vs Crystal Palace?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Sunderland and Crystal Palace expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Sunderland and 0.94 for Crystal Palace, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Sunderland vs Crystal Palace?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 59 outings, Sunderland have picked up 1.49 PPG on a 22W 22D 15L record — D-D-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Sunderland is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Crystal Palace's form line: 20W 21D 18L from 59 games, 1.37 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-D. The sample for Crystal Palace is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.49 PPG for Sunderland against 1.37 for Crystal Palace. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sunderland have posted 1.76 PPG from 29 outings (13W 12D 4L).
On the road, Crystal Palace have gone 12W 8D 9L from 29 away games — 1.52 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sunderland are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Crystal Palace are on 1.24 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sunderland
Blended
Crystal Palace
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sunderland and Crystal Palace in coming into this match?
Sunderland have gone 22W 22D 15L in their last 59 games (1.49 PPG), while Crystal Palace have gone 20W 21D 18L in their last 59 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sunderland at home or Crystal Palace away?
Sunderland's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sunderland at home: 1.76 PPG; Crystal Palace away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Sunderland or Crystal Palace been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sunderland have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Crystal Palace in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Sunderland
1
Draws
0
Crystal Palace
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Crystal Palace?
From 2 meetings on record, Sunderland have won 1, Crystal Palace have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sunderland and Crystal Palace last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Sunderland 2-1 Crystal Palace.
Who has won more matches between Sunderland and Crystal Palace?
Sunderland have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Crystal Palace are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sunderland 55%, Crystal Palace 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Sunderland) and 45% (Crystal Palace).
On the defensive side: Sunderland keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Crystal Palace in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sunderland home games / Crystal Palace away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sunderland play Crystal Palace?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Sunderland's recent matches and 48% of Crystal Palace's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sunderland vs Crystal Palace usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Sunderland's recent games and 45% of Crystal Palace's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sunderland and Crystal Palace tend to score early?
Sunderland have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Crystal Palace in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sunderland edge out Crystal Palace 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sunderland beat Crystal Palace 2-1 at Stadium of Light, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sunderland 1.20 xG and Crystal Palace 0.94 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Sunderland beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sunderland attack 0.87 / defence 0.85 against Crystal Palace attack 0.90 / defence 0.91, drawn from 21/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sunderland 39% | Draw 35% | Crystal Palace 26%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sunderland 39%, Crystal Palace 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sunderland's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Crystal Palace's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sunderland 1.49 PPG, Crystal Palace 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sunderland win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.