🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Sunderland edge out Bournemouth 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sunderland beat Bournemouth 3-2 at Stadium of Light, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sunderland 2.22 xG and Bournemouth 1.39 xG, a combined 3.61. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sunderland attack 1.04 / defence 1.02 against Bournemouth attack 1.15 / defence 1.38, drawn from 12/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sunderland 56% | Draw 20% | Bournemouth 24%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sunderland 40%, Bournemouth 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sunderland's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Bournemouth's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sunderland 1.54 PPG, Bournemouth 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sunderland win broke the near-deadlock. Sunderland (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bournemouth (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights