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Poisson model rates Sunderland at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sunderland vs Bournemouth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 13 as Sunderland welcome Bournemouth to Stadium of Light. Kick-off is set for Saturday 29 November 2025 at 15:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Sunderland — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sunderland, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Sunderland's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Stadium of Light this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.

Across all Premier League games this season, Bournemouth have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bournemouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Bournemouth's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sunderland at 1.60 PPG versus Bournemouth's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Trading Patterns

Sunderland in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

Bournemouth in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sunderland 48% versus Bournemouth 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sunderland 40% | Bournemouth 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sunderland 2.22 xG and Bournemouth 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sunderland attack 1.039 / defence 1.025 | Bournemouth attack 1.151 / defence 1.376. League average goals — home 1.551 / away 1.181. Bournemouth bring a strong defensive rating of 1.376 — this is suppressing Sunderland's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Sunderland games / 50 Bournemouth games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Sunderland 56% | Draw 20% | Bournemouth 24%. Fair-value odds: Sunderland 1.79 | Draw 5.00 | Bournemouth 4.17. The model has a clear lean to Sunderland (56%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.61. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.61 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.22 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Sunderland are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.61 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: Sunderland 50% | Bournemouth 70% BTTS from recent games.

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