Sunderland vs Aston Villa – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Sunderland at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sunderland vs Aston Villa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sunderland and Aston Villa meet at Stadium of Light in Premier League, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 6 February 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Sunderland (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Sunderland have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sunderland's home record at Stadium of Light: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Aston Villa's overall Premier League record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D W W L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Aston Villa have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Aston Villa's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Sunderland against 1.40 for Aston Villa. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sunderland lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2026, ended 3–4 with Aston Villa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Sunderland — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 45% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Aston Villa — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sunderland 48% versus Aston Villa 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sunderland 45% | Aston Villa 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sunderland 1.61 xG and Aston Villa 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sunderland attack 0.858 / defence 0.878 | Aston Villa attack 0.888 / defence 1.181. League average goals — home 1.593 / away 1.211. Data: 40 Sunderland games / 40 Aston Villa games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sunderland 53% | Draw 25% | Aston Villa 22%. Fair-value odds: Sunderland 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | Aston Villa 4.55. Sunderland hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sunderland are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sunderland if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Sunderland 30% | Aston Villa 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sunderland vs Aston Villa | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadium of Light • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Feb 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sunderland 53% | Draw 25% | Aston Villa 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 49% | xG Sunderland 1.61 / Aston Villa 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Sunderland attack 0.858 / def 0.878 | Aston Villa attack 0.888 / def 1.181 | league avg home 1.593 / away 1.211 • Poisson stance: Sunderland (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Sunderland xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Aston Villa xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sunderland vs Aston Villa kick off?
Sunderland vs Aston Villa is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 6 February 2027 at Stadium of Light.
Where is Sunderland vs Aston Villa being played?
The match is being played at Stadium of Light.
What competition is Sunderland vs Aston Villa part of?
Sunderland vs Aston Villa is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Sunderland vs Aston Villa?
Our statistical model gives Sunderland a 53% chance of winning, Aston Villa a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sunderland the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Aston Villa?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Sunderland and Aston Villa will score (BTTS).
Will Sunderland vs Aston Villa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Aston Villa?
Record (2 meetings): Sunderland 0W | Draws 1 | Aston Villa 1W.
What form are Sunderland and Aston Villa in?
Sunderland (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Aston Villa (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sunderland's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Aston Villa's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. Flip it around — Aston Villa's attack (0.89x) against Sunderland's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 2-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sunderland Win
53%
1.88
25%
4.02
22%
4.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Sunderland xG
Total xG
2.56
0.94
Aston Villa xG
1.88
53%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
4.54
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
20%
5.02
Win to Nil
21%
4.84
4%
22.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 12.5 | 11.8 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.5 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sunderland vs Aston Villa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Sunderland and Aston Villa expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Sunderland and 0.94 for Aston Villa, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Sunderland vs Aston Villa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 40 outings, Sunderland have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 15W 12D 13L record — D-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Sunderland, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Aston Villa's form line: 19W 8D 13L from 40 games, 1.62 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Aston Villa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.42 PPG for Sunderland against 1.62 for Aston Villa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Sunderland have posted 1.80 PPG from 20 outings (10W 6D 4L).
On the road, Aston Villa have gone 7W 6D 7L from 20 away games — 1.35 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sunderland come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sunderland are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Aston Villa are on 1.40 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sunderland
Early Season
Aston Villa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sunderland and Aston Villa in coming into this match?
Sunderland have gone 15W 12D 13L in their last 40 games (1.42 PPG), while Aston Villa have gone 19W 8D 13L in their last 40 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sunderland at home or Aston Villa away?
Sunderland's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sunderland at home: 1.80 PPG; Aston Villa away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Sunderland or Aston Villa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sunderland have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Aston Villa in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Sunderland
1
Draws
1
Aston Villa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Aston Villa?
From 2 meetings on record, Sunderland have won 0, Aston Villa have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sunderland and Aston Villa last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Aston Villa 4-3 Sunderland.
Who has won more matches between Sunderland and Aston Villa?
Aston Villa have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sunderland see a goal before the break in 45% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Aston Villa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sunderland 45%, Aston Villa 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Sunderland) and 50% (Aston Villa).
On the defensive side: Sunderland keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Aston Villa in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sunderland home games / Aston Villa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sunderland play Aston Villa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Sunderland's recent matches and 60% of Aston Villa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sunderland vs Aston Villa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Sunderland's recent games and 50% of Aston Villa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sunderland and Aston Villa tend to score early?
Sunderland have had a goal before half-time in 45% of their recent matches, Aston Villa in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.