Everton vs Newcastle – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Everton vs Newcastle fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Newcastle travel to Hill Dickinson Stadium to take on Everton. The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 February 2027, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Everton stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Everton have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Hill Dickinson Stadium, Everton have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Newcastle — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Newcastle have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Newcastle have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Everton) versus 1.10 (Newcastle). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Everton, 4 for Newcastle and 2 shared spoils from 10 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2026, ended 3–2 with Everton winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Everton trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Newcastle trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 50% versus Newcastle 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 42% | Newcastle 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 1.35 xG and Newcastle 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 1.027 / defence 0.957 | Newcastle attack 0.994 / defence 0.825. League average goals — home 1.593 / away 1.210. Data: 40 Everton games / 40 Newcastle games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Everton 41% | Draw 27% | Newcastle 32%. Fair-value odds: Everton 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Newcastle 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Everton as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Everton 60% | Newcastle 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton vs Newcastle | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Hill Dickinson Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Feb 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton 41% | Draw 27% | Newcastle 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Everton 1.35 / Newcastle 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Everton attack 1.027 / def 0.957 | Newcastle attack 0.994 / def 0.825 | league avg home 1.593 / away 1.210 • Poisson stance: Everton (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Everton xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Newcastle xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton vs Newcastle kick off?
Everton vs Newcastle is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 6 February 2027 at Hill Dickinson Stadium.
Where is Everton vs Newcastle being played?
The match is being played at Hill Dickinson Stadium.
What competition is Everton vs Newcastle part of?
Everton vs Newcastle is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Everton vs Newcastle?
Our statistical model gives Everton a 41% chance of winning, Newcastle a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Everton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Newcastle?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Everton and Newcastle will score (BTTS).
Will Everton vs Newcastle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Newcastle?
Record (10 meetings): Everton 4W | Draws 2 | Newcastle 4W.
What form are Everton and Newcastle in?
Everton (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-W-D. Newcastle (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Everton's attack rating (1.03) and Newcastle's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Newcastle's attack versus Everton's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton Win
41%
2.42
27%
3.73
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Everton xG
Total xG
2.50
1.15
Newcastle xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
26%
3.86
Win to Nil
13%
7.66
8%
12.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.7 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.6 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton vs Newcastle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Everton and Newcastle expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Everton and 1.15 for Newcastle, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton vs Newcastle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 40 outings, Everton have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 14W 11D 15L record — D-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Everton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Newcastle's form line: 15W 8D 17L from 40 games, 1.32 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Newcastle, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Everton on 1.32 PPG, Newcastle on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Everton have posted 1.30 PPG from 20 outings (7W 5D 8L).
On the road, Newcastle have gone 5W 5D 10L from 20 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Everton are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Newcastle are on 1.42 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Newcastle in 65%.
Last 40 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton
Early Season
Newcastle
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton and Newcastle in coming into this match?
Everton have gone 14W 11D 15L in their last 40 games (1.32 PPG), while Newcastle have gone 15W 8D 17L in their last 40 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton at home or Newcastle away?
Everton's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton at home: 1.30 PPG; Newcastle away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Everton or Newcastle been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Newcastle in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Everton and Newcastle runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Apr 2023, when Newcastle won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Everton's record when hosting Newcastle specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Everton
2
Draws
4
Newcastle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Newcastle?
From 10 meetings on record, Everton have won 4, Newcastle have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Everton and Newcastle last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Newcastle 2-3 Everton.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Everton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Newcastle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton 50%, Newcastle 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Everton) and 45% (Newcastle).
On the defensive side: Everton keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Newcastle in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton home games / Newcastle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton play Newcastle?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Everton's recent matches and 50% of Newcastle's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton vs Newcastle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Everton's recent games and 45% of Newcastle's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Everton and Newcastle tend to score early?
Everton have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Newcastle in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.