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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Fulham edge out Southampton 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fulham beat Southampton 1-2 at St. Mary's Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Southampton 0.78 xG and Fulham 2.26 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Southampton attack 0.57 / defence 1.63 against Fulham attack 0.98 / defence 0.95, drawn from 33/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Southampton 11% | Draw 18% | Fulham 71%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 71%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Southampton 62%, Fulham 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Southampton's trading profile (71 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Fulham's trading profile (71 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Southampton 1.24 PPG, Fulham 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fulham win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights