🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Fulham (71%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Southampton face Fulham.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees Fulham travel to St. Mary's Stadium to take on Southampton. The game is scheduled for Saturday 26 April 2025, 15:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Southampton stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home at St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton have gone 0W 1D 9L this season (10 games, 0.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 3.20 conceded per game.

Across all Premier League games this season, Fulham have recorded 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Fulham's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form points away from home here. Fulham's 1.50 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Southampton's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Southampton, 2 for Fulham and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 22 Dec 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Southampton trading profile (71 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

Fulham trading profile (71 games, 34 at away): BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Southampton 59% versus Fulham 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Southampton 62% | Fulham 61%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Southampton 0.78 xG and Fulham 2.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Southampton attack 0.569 / defence 1.629 | Fulham attack 0.977 / defence 0.948. League average goals — home 1.450 / away 1.420. Southampton's attack strength of 0.569 is below the league average — the 0.78 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 33 Southampton games / 71 Fulham games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Southampton 11% | Draw 18% | Fulham 71%. Fair-value odds: Southampton 9.09 | Draw 5.56 | Fulham 1.41. The model has a clear lean to Fulham (71%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Fulham are the pick at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.04 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Southampton 50% | Fulham 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights