Nottingham Forest 0-2 Tottenham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Tottenham at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
The City Ground plays host to Nottingham Forest versus Tottenham in Premier League, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Sunday 28 August 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Nottingham Forest have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Nottingham Forest have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Nottingham Forest's home record at The City Ground: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Premier League appearances (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The City Ground. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Nottingham Forest are significantly better at The City Ground than their overall form suggests.
Tottenham (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Tottenham have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Tottenham's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 2.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Nottingham Forest goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Tottenham goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at away): BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nottingham Forest 44% versus Tottenham 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nottingham Forest 42% | Tottenham 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nottingham Forest 1.19 xG and Tottenham 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nottingham Forest attack 0.841 / defence 0.970 | Tottenham attack 1.249 / defence 0.883. League average goals — home 1.608 / away 1.218. Tottenham have an above-average attack strength of 1.249 — the away xG of 1.48 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 3 Nottingham Forest games / 41 Tottenham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 31% | Draw 26% | Tottenham 44%. Fair-value odds: Nottingham Forest 3.23 | Draw 3.85 | Tottenham 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Tottenham at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Tottenham if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. This conflicts with form data: Nottingham Forest 40% | Tottenham 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: The City Ground • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Aug 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 31% | Draw 26% | Tottenham 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Nottingham Forest 1.19 / Tottenham 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Nottingham Forest attack 0.841 / def 0.970 | Tottenham attack 1.249 / def 0.883 | league avg home 1.608 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Tottenham (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Nottingham Forest xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Tottenham xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham kick off?
Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 28 August 2022 at The City Ground.
What was the final score in Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham?
Nottingham Forest 0 - 2 Tottenham.
Where is Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham being played?
The match is being played at The City Ground.
What competition is Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham part of?
Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham?
Our statistical model gives Nottingham Forest a 31% chance of winning, Tottenham a 44% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Tottenham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Nottingham Forest and Tottenham will score (BTTS).
Will Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and Tottenham?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nottingham Forest and Tottenham in?
Nottingham Forest (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Tottenham (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Nottingham Forest's attack rating (0.84) and Tottenham's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Tottenham's attack (1.25x) against Nottingham Forest's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from 3/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tottenham Win
31%
3.26
26%
3.89
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Nottingham Forest xG
Total xG
2.67
1.48
Tottenham xG
3.26
31%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
23%
4.37
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
7%
14.26
13%
7.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 10.2 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.2 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.3 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Nottingham Forest and Tottenham expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Nottingham Forest and 1.48 for Tottenham, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Nottingham Forest's recent record stands at 23W 10D 8L from 41 games, a 1.93 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Nottingham Forest, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Tottenham, meanwhile, have gone 24W 6D 11L across 41 games — 1.90 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Tottenham, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.93 PPG for Nottingham Forest against 1.90 for Tottenham. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Nottingham Forest have managed 14W 3D 3L from 20 games — 2.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Tottenham's away record stands at 9W 5D 6L across 20 trips, a 1.60 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nottingham Forest come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Nottingham Forest are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game recently; Tottenham are on 1.85 scored and 1.05 conceded. Tottenham's attacking output running into Nottingham Forest's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Nottingham Forest have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games; Tottenham in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nottingham Forest
Early Season
Tottenham
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nottingham Forest and Tottenham in coming into this match?
Nottingham Forest have gone 23W 10D 8L in their last 41 games (1.93 PPG), while Tottenham have gone 24W 6D 11L in their last 41 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nottingham Forest at home or Tottenham away?
Nottingham Forest's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nottingham Forest at home: 2.25 PPG; Tottenham away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Nottingham Forest or Tottenham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nottingham Forest have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Tottenham in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Nottingham Forest go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Nottingham Forest won 3-0 on 14 Dec 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nottingham Forest have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Tottenham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Nottingham Forest
0
Draws
4
Tottenham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and Tottenham?
From 8 meetings on record, Nottingham Forest have won 4, Tottenham have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Nottingham Forest and Tottenham last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Tottenham 0-3 Nottingham Forest.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Nottingham Forest are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nottingham Forest 40%, Tottenham 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Nottingham Forest) and 50% (Tottenham). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Nottingham Forest keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Tottenham in 40%; Tottenham in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nottingham Forest home games / Tottenham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nottingham Forest play Tottenham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Nottingham Forest's recent matches and 40% of Tottenham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Nottingham Forest's matches and 50% of Tottenham's.
Tottenham cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Nottingham Forest.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tottenham beat Nottingham Forest 0-2 at The City Ground, Regular Season - 4, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nottingham Forest 1.19 xG and Tottenham 1.48 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Nottingham Forest fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nottingham Forest attack 0.84 / defence 0.97 against Tottenham attack 1.25 / defence 0.88, drawn from 3/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nottingham Forest 31% | Draw 26% | Tottenham 44%, with Tottenham to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nottingham Forest 42%, Tottenham 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nottingham Forest's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Tottenham's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nottingham Forest 1.93 PPG, Tottenham 1.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tottenham win broke the near-deadlock. Nottingham Forest (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.05 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Tottenham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.