Brentford 1-1 Everton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Brentford at 66%, yet other data sources diverge — this Brentford vs Everton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Everton make the trip to Gtech Community Stadium to face Brentford in Premier League, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Saturday 27 August 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Brentford (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Brentford have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Brentford's home record at Gtech Community Stadium: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gtech Community Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Everton's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Everton have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Everton's away record: 1W 1D 8L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Brentford. A 0.60 PPG lead over Everton (1.70 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Brentford 2W, Everton 0W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 15 May 2022, ended 3–2 with Brentford winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Brentford goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at home): BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Everton goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at away): BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brentford 54% versus Everton 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brentford 61% | Everton 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brentford 2.13 xG and Everton 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brentford attack 1.172 / defence 0.822 | Everton attack 0.881 / defence 1.187. League average goals — home 1.532 / away 1.241. Data: 41 Brentford games / 41 Everton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brentford 66% | Draw 20% | Everton 15%. Fair-value odds: Brentford 1.52 | Draw 5.00 | Everton 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Brentford (66%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Brentford as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.03 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Brentford 30% | Everton 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brentford vs Everton | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Gtech Community Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Aug 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brentford 66% | Draw 20% | Everton 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 52% | xG Brentford 2.13 / Everton 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Brentford attack 1.172 / def 0.822 | Everton attack 0.881 / def 1.187 | league avg home 1.532 / away 1.241 • Poisson stance: Brentford (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.13
Brentford xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Everton xG
52%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brentford vs Everton kick off?
Brentford vs Everton kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 27 August 2022 at Gtech Community Stadium.
What was the final score in Brentford vs Everton?
Brentford 1 - 1 Everton.
Where is Brentford vs Everton being played?
The match is being played at Gtech Community Stadium.
What competition is Brentford vs Everton part of?
Brentford vs Everton is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Brentford vs Everton?
Our statistical model gives Brentford a 66% chance of winning, Everton a 15% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Brentford the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brentford vs Everton?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Brentford and Everton will score (BTTS).
Will Brentford vs Everton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brentford and Everton?
Record (2 meetings): Brentford 2W | Draws 0 | Everton 0W.
What form are Brentford and Everton in?
Brentford (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Everton (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Brentford's attack at 1.17x the league average against Everton's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 2.13 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Everton's attack (0.88x) against Brentford's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brentford Win
66%
1.52
20%
5.06
15%
6.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.13
Brentford xG
Total xG
3.03
0.90
Everton xG
1.52
66%
Home win
5.06
20%
Draw
6.83
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
12%
8.44
Win to Nil
27%
3.75
2%
57.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.3 | 9.2 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.8 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brentford vs Everton?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Brentford and Everton expected to score?
The model projects 2.13 expected goals for Brentford and 0.90 for Everton, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Brentford vs Everton?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 41 outings, Brentford have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 14W 8D 19L record — W-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Brentford, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Everton's form line: 11W 7D 23L from 41 games, 0.98 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Everton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Brentford against 0.98 for Everton. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Brentford have posted 1.35 PPG from 20 outings (8W 3D 9L).
On the road, Everton have gone 2W 4D 14L from 20 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.98 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Everton's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Brentford come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Brentford are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Everton are on 1.10 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brentford
Early Season
Everton
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brentford and Everton in coming into this match?
Brentford have gone 14W 8D 19L in their last 41 games (1.22 PPG), while Everton have gone 11W 7D 23L in their last 41 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brentford at home or Everton away?
Brentford's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brentford at home: 1.35 PPG; Everton away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Brentford have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Everton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Brentford
4
Draws
3
Everton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brentford and Everton?
From 10 meetings on record, Brentford have won 3, Everton have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Brentford and Everton last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Brentford 2-2 Everton.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brentford 40%, Everton 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Brentford) and 65% (Everton). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 15% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Brentford keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Brentford have failed to score in 30% of games; Everton in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brentford home games / Everton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brentford play Everton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Brentford's recent matches and 60% of Everton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Brentford vs Everton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Brentford's matches and 65% of Everton's.
Brentford and Everton share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Gtech Community Stadium, Regular Season - 4, as Brentford and Everton drew 1-1 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brentford 2.13 xG and Everton 0.90 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Brentford fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brentford attack 1.17 / defence 0.82 against Everton attack 0.88 / defence 1.19, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brentford 66% | Draw 20% | Everton 15%, with Brentford to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brentford 61%, Everton 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brentford's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Everton's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Brentford 1.22 PPG, Everton 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Everton (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.15 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.