West Ham 1-1 Tottenham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Tottenham at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this West Ham vs Tottenham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Tottenham travel to London Stadium to take on West Ham. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 31 August 2022, 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, West Ham have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. West Ham have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, West Ham have posted 4W 3D 3L at London Stadium — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — West Ham are significantly better at London Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Tottenham — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Tottenham have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Tottenham have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.80 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Tottenham are 1.60 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, West Ham have won 1, Tottenham 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Mar 2022, ended 1–3 with Tottenham winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
West Ham trading profile (42 games, 21 at home): BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Tottenham trading profile (42 games, 21 at away): BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — West Ham 57% versus Tottenham 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (West Ham 52% | Tottenham 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects West Ham 0.96 xG and Tottenham 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: West Ham attack 0.766 / defence 1.107 | Tottenham attack 1.306 / defence 0.784. League average goals — home 1.605 / away 1.177. West Ham's attack strength of 0.766 is below the league average — the 0.96 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Tottenham's defence strength of 0.784 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Tottenham have an above-average attack strength of 1.306 — the away xG of 1.70 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 42 West Ham games / 42 Tottenham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: West Ham 20% | Draw 26% | Tottenham 54%. Fair-value odds: West Ham 5.00 | Draw 3.85 | Tottenham 1.85. Tottenham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Tottenham as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tottenham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: West Ham 60% | Tottenham 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: West Ham vs Tottenham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: London Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 31 Aug 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: West Ham 20% | Draw 26% | Tottenham 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 52% | xG West Ham 0.96 / Tottenham 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: West Ham attack 0.766 / def 1.107 | Tottenham attack 1.306 / def 0.784 | league avg home 1.605 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Tottenham (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
West Ham xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Tottenham xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does West Ham vs Tottenham kick off?
West Ham vs Tottenham kicked off at 19:45 on Wednesday 31 August 2022 at London Stadium.
What was the final score in West Ham vs Tottenham?
West Ham 1 - 1 Tottenham.
Where is West Ham vs Tottenham being played?
The match is being played at London Stadium.
What competition is West Ham vs Tottenham part of?
West Ham vs Tottenham is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win West Ham vs Tottenham?
Our statistical model gives West Ham a 20% chance of winning, Tottenham a 54% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Tottenham the favourite.
Will both teams score in West Ham vs Tottenham?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both West Ham and Tottenham will score (BTTS).
Will West Ham vs Tottenham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between West Ham and Tottenham?
Record (2 meetings): West Ham 1W | Draws 0 | Tottenham 1W.
What form are West Ham and Tottenham in?
West Ham (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Tottenham (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from West Ham's attack rating (0.77) and Tottenham's defence rating (0.78), the model arrives at 0.96 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Tottenham's attack versus West Ham's defence, projects 1.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.4%), 0-2 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tottenham Win
20%
4.93
26%
3.86
54%
1.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
0 – 2
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
West Ham xG
Total xG
2.67
1.70
Tottenham xG
4.93
20%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
1.86
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
18%
5.48
38%
2.62
Win to Nil
4%
27.02
21%
4.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 11.8 | 10.1 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.5 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for West Ham vs Tottenham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are West Ham and Tottenham expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for West Ham and 1.70 for Tottenham, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for West Ham vs Tottenham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 42 outings, West Ham have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 17W 8D 17L record — L-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for West Ham, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Tottenham's form line: 25W 6D 11L from 42 games, 1.93 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Tottenham, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Tottenham are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against West Ham.
Venue Form
On home soil, West Ham have posted 1.52 PPG from 21 outings (9W 5D 7L).
On the road, Tottenham have gone 10W 5D 6L from 21 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
West Ham are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Tottenham are on 1.86 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Tottenham in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
West Ham
Early Season
Tottenham
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are West Ham and Tottenham in coming into this match?
West Ham have gone 17W 8D 17L in their last 42 games (1.40 PPG), while Tottenham have gone 25W 6D 11L in their last 42 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — West Ham at home or Tottenham away?
Tottenham's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — West Ham at home: 1.52 PPG; Tottenham away: 1.67 PPG.
Have West Ham or Tottenham been keeping clean sheets recently?
West Ham have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Tottenham in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Oct 2024, when Tottenham won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
West Ham's record when hosting Tottenham specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
West Ham
3
Draws
4
Tottenham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between West Ham and Tottenham?
From 10 meetings on record, West Ham have won 3, Tottenham have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did West Ham and Tottenham last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Tottenham 1-2 West Ham.
Who has won more matches between West Ham and Tottenham?
Tottenham have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — West Ham 71%, Tottenham 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (West Ham) and 48% (Tottenham).
On the defensive side: Tottenham in 43%; Tottenham in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = West Ham home games / Tottenham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when West Ham play Tottenham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 71% of West Ham's recent matches and 38% of Tottenham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is West Ham vs Tottenham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of West Ham's recent games and 48% of Tottenham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
West Ham and Tottenham share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at London Stadium, Regular Season - 5, as West Ham and Tottenham drew 1-1 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting West Ham 0.96 xG and Tottenham 1.70 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Ham attack 0.77 / defence 1.11 against Tottenham attack 1.31 / defence 0.78, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it West Ham 20% | Draw 26% | Tottenham 54%, with Tottenham to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Ham 52%, Tottenham 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
West Ham's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Tottenham's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Tottenham arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.40. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.