Nottingham Forest 1-1 Newcastle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nottingham Forest at 39%, yet the head-to-head data favours Newcastle — this Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Newcastle travel to City Ground to take on Nottingham Forest in Premier League (matchday 36). The game is scheduled for Sunday 10 May 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Nottingham Forest have gone 4W 4D 2L — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Nottingham Forest's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 5D 3L (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.60 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Newcastle stand at 4W 0D 6L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
On the road, Newcastle have gone 3W 1D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Nottingham Forest 1.60 PPG, Newcastle 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
Despite the home advantage, Newcastle have the better record in our head-to-head data — 6 wins from 7 H2H matches against 1 for Nottingham Forest.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.9 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 5 Oct 2025, ended Nottingham Forest 0–2 Newcastle — a Newcastle win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Newcastle have won 6 of 7 H2H matches, and at 3.9 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Nottingham Forest trading profile (last 73 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Newcastle trading profile (last 73 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nottingham Forest 45% versus Newcastle 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nottingham Forest 52% | Newcastle 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nottingham Forest 1.16 xG and Newcastle 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nottingham Forest attack 0.829 / defence 0.911 | Newcastle attack 0.867 / defence 0.961. League average goals — home 1.451 / away 1.225. Data: built from Nottingham Forest's last 73 games and Newcastle's last 73.
Result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 39% | Draw 33% | Newcastle 29%. Fair-value odds: Nottingham Forest 2.59 | Draw 3.08 | Newcastle 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Nottingham Forest at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nottingham Forest offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.12 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Under 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Nottingham Forest's last 10 home games and Newcastle's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.9 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Nottingham Forest 40% (last 10 home games) | Newcastle 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle | Competition: Premier League, matchday 36 | Venue: City Ground • Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 39% | Draw 33% | Newcastle 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Nottingham Forest 1.16 / Newcastle 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Nottingham Forest attack 0.829 / def 0.911 | Newcastle attack 0.867 / def 0.961 | league avg home 1.451 / away 1.225 • Poisson stance: Nottingham Forest (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Nottingham Forest xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Newcastle xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle FAQs
What time does Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle kick off?
Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 10 May 2026 at City Ground.
What was the final score in Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle?
Nottingham Forest 1 - 1 Newcastle.
Where is Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle being played?
The match is being played at City Ground.
What competition is Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle part of?
Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle is a Premier League fixture (matchday 36) (England).
Who is favourite to win Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle?
Our statistical model gives Nottingham Forest a 39% chance of winning, Newcastle a 29% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Nottingham Forest the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Nottingham Forest and Newcastle will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Nottingham Forest's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Newcastle's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. The same calculation in reverse, Newcastle's attack versus Nottingham Forest's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Nottingham Forest's last 73 games and Newcastle's last 73 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nottingham Forest Win
39%
2.59
33%
3.08
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Nottingham Forest xG
Total xG
2.12
0.97
Newcastle xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.08
33%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
15%
6.83
9%
10.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 11.6 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.4 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Nottingham Forest and Newcastle expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Nottingham Forest and 0.97 for Newcastle, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Nottingham Forest's recent record stands at 30W 17D 26L from 73 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five.
Newcastle, meanwhile, have gone 33W 12D 28L across 73 games — 1.52 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nottingham Forest on 1.47 PPG, Newcastle on 1.52. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Nottingham Forest have managed 13W 11D 12L from their last 36 home games — 1.39 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Newcastle's away record stands at 12W 8D 16L across their last 36 away games, a 1.22 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Nottingham Forest are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Newcastle are on 1.60 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 73 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nottingham Forest
Current Season
Newcastle
Current Season
Nottingham Forest (Home) vs Newcastle (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Nottingham Forest
Current Season
Newcastle
Current Season
❓ Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle Form FAQs
What form are Nottingham Forest and Newcastle in coming into this match?
Nottingham Forest have gone 30W 17D 26L in their last 73 games (1.47 PPG), while Newcastle have gone 33W 12D 28L in their last 73 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nottingham Forest at home or Newcastle away?
Nottingham Forest's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nottingham Forest at home: 1.39 PPG; Newcastle away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Nottingham Forest or Newcastle been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nottingham Forest have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Newcastle in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2022. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 10 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Nottingham Forest's record when hosting Newcastle specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Nottingham Forest
1
Draws
6
Newcastle
Recent Meetings
❓ Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and Newcastle?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Nottingham Forest have won 1, Newcastle have won 6, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Nottingham Forest and Newcastle last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 May 2026: Nottingham Forest 1-1 Newcastle.
Who has won more matches between Nottingham Forest and Newcastle?
Newcastle have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nottingham Forest see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Newcastle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nottingham Forest 39%, Newcastle 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Nottingham Forest) and 56% (Newcastle).
On the defensive side: Nottingham Forest keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Nottingham Forest have failed to score in 39% of games; Newcastle in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nottingham Forest home games / Newcastle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Nottingham Forest and Newcastle matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Nottingham Forest's recent matches and 56% of Newcastle's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Nottingham Forest and Newcastle matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Nottingham Forest's recent games and 56% of Newcastle's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nottingham Forest and Newcastle matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 58% of Nottingham Forest's recent matches and 75% of Newcastle's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nottingham Forest and Newcastle share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at City Ground, Regular Season - 36, as Nottingham Forest and Newcastle drew 1-1 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nottingham Forest 1.16 xG and Newcastle 0.97 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nottingham Forest attack 0.83 / defence 0.91 against Newcastle attack 0.87 / defence 0.96, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nottingham Forest 39% | Draw 33% | Newcastle 29%, with Nottingham Forest to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nottingham Forest 52%, Newcastle 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nottingham Forest's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Newcastle's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nottingham Forest 1.47 PPG, Newcastle 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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