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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Liverpool edge out Nottingham Forest 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Liverpool beat Nottingham Forest 0-1 at City Ground, Regular Season - 27, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nottingham Forest 1.09 xG and Liverpool 1.35 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Nottingham Forest fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nottingham Forest attack 0.77 / defence 0.95 against Liverpool attack 1.12 / defence 0.99, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nottingham Forest 27% | Draw 34% | Liverpool 39%, with Liverpool to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nottingham Forest 50%, Liverpool 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nottingham Forest's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Liverpool's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Liverpool arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.44. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Nottingham Forest (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward. Liverpool (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights