Nottingham Forest 3-1 Fulham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nottingham Forest at 45%, yet in-form Fulham provide a compelling counter-argument — this Nottingham Forest vs Fulham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Nottingham Forest welcome Fulham to The City Ground in Premier League (matchday 31). Kick-off is Tuesday 2 April 2024 at 19:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Nottingham Forest have gone 1W 3D 6L — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Nottingham Forest's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Fulham — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Fulham's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. Fulham's 1.50 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Nottingham Forest's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Nottingham Forest's games and 70% of Fulham's (from Nottingham Forest's last 10 home games and Fulham's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
Fulham have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the 5 H2H matches we hold against 1 for Nottingham Forest.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.4 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 6 Dec 2023, ended Nottingham Forest 0–5 Fulham — a Fulham win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Fulham have won 4 of 5 H2H matches, and at 3.4 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Nottingham Forest trading profile (last 68 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Fulham trading profile (last 68 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nottingham Forest 56% versus Fulham 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nottingham Forest 47% | Fulham 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nottingham Forest 1.68 xG and Fulham 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nottingham Forest attack 0.810 / defence 0.951 | Fulham attack 0.871 / defence 1.213. League average goals — home 1.707 / away 1.535. Fulham's defence rating of 1.213 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Nottingham Forest's projected output up. Data: built from Nottingham Forest's last 68 games and Fulham's last 68.
Result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 45% | Draw 27% | Fulham 28%. Fair-value odds: Nottingham Forest 2.20 | Draw 3.70 | Fulham 3.63. Nottingham Forest hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.68 / 1.27) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Nottingham Forest as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Fulham (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nottingham Forest offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.95 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Nottingham Forest's last 10 home games and Fulham's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Nottingham Forest 60% (last 10 home games) | Fulham 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nottingham Forest vs Fulham | Competition: Premier League, matchday 31 | Venue: The City Ground • Kick-off: Tuesday 2 April 2024 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 45% | Draw 27% | Fulham 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Nottingham Forest 1.68 / Fulham 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Nottingham Forest attack 0.810 / def 0.951 | Fulham attack 0.871 / def 1.213 | league avg home 1.707 / away 1.535 • Poisson stance: Nottingham Forest (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Nottingham Forest xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Fulham xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Nottingham Forest vs Fulham FAQs
What time does Nottingham Forest vs Fulham kick off?
Nottingham Forest vs Fulham kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Tuesday 2 April 2024 at The City Ground.
What was the final score in Nottingham Forest vs Fulham?
Nottingham Forest 3 - 1 Fulham.
Where is Nottingham Forest vs Fulham being played?
The match is being played at The City Ground.
What competition is Nottingham Forest vs Fulham part of?
Nottingham Forest vs Fulham is a Premier League fixture (matchday 31) (England).
Who is favourite to win Nottingham Forest vs Fulham?
Our statistical model gives Nottingham Forest a 45% chance of winning, Fulham a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Nottingham Forest the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nottingham Forest vs Fulham?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Nottingham Forest and Fulham will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Nottingham Forest vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Nottingham Forest's attack rating (0.81) and Fulham's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.68 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Fulham's attack versus Nottingham Forest's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Nottingham Forest's last 68 games and Fulham's last 68 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Nottingham Forest Win
45%
2.20
27%
3.70
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Nottingham Forest xG
Total xG
2.95
1.27
Fulham xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
19%
5.34
Win to Nil
13%
7.85
5%
19.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.2 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.4 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Nottingham Forest vs Fulham Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Nottingham Forest vs Fulham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Nottingham Forest and Fulham expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Nottingham Forest and 1.27 for Fulham, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Nottingham Forest vs Fulham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Nottingham Forest's recent record stands at 15W 19D 34L from 68 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-D in the last five.
Fulham, meanwhile, have gone 26W 13D 29L across 68 games — 1.34 PPG, with W-W-L-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fulham by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Nottingham Forest heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Nottingham Forest have managed 12W 10D 12L from their last 34 home games — 1.35 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.94 PPG overall — Nottingham Forest are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Fulham's away record stands at 9W 7D 18L across their last 34 away games, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Nottingham Forest are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Fulham are on 1.49 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 68 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nottingham Forest
Current Season
Fulham
Current Season
Nottingham Forest (Home) vs Fulham (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Nottingham Forest
Current Season
Fulham
Current Season
❓ Nottingham Forest vs Fulham Form FAQs
What form are Nottingham Forest and Fulham in coming into this match?
Nottingham Forest have gone 15W 19D 34L in their last 68 games (0.94 PPG), while Fulham have gone 26W 13D 29L in their last 68 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nottingham Forest at home or Fulham away?
Nottingham Forest's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nottingham Forest at home: 1.35 PPG; Fulham away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from October 2021. They cover more than one competition — Championship, Premier League. The most recent was on 15 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 6 Dec 2023, when Fulham won Fulham 5-0 Nottingham Forest.
Nottingham Forest's record when hosting Fulham specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Nottingham Forest
1
Draws
7
Fulham
Recent Meetings
❓ Nottingham Forest vs Fulham H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and Fulham?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Nottingham Forest have won 2, Fulham have won 7, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Nottingham Forest and Fulham last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 March 2026: Nottingham Forest 0-0 Fulham.
Who has won more matches between Nottingham Forest and Fulham?
Fulham have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nottingham Forest are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 56% of those situations.
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nottingham Forest 62%, Fulham 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Nottingham Forest) and 62% (Fulham).
On the defensive side: Fulham in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nottingham Forest home games / Fulham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Nottingham Forest vs Fulham Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Nottingham Forest and Fulham matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Nottingham Forest's games and 56% of Fulham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Nottingham Forest and Fulham matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Nottingham Forest's recent games and 62% of Fulham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nottingham Forest and Fulham matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Nottingham Forest's recent matches and 65% of Fulham's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nottingham Forest cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Fulham.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nottingham Forest beat Fulham 3-1 at The City Ground, Regular Season - 31, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nottingham Forest 1.68 xG and Fulham 1.27 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Nottingham Forest beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nottingham Forest attack 0.81 / defence 0.95 against Fulham attack 0.87 / defence 1.21, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nottingham Forest 45% | Draw 27% | Fulham 28%, with Nottingham Forest to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nottingham Forest 47%, Fulham 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nottingham Forest's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Fulham's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fulham arrived the stronger side — 1.34 PPG against 0.94. Form was overturned, with Nottingham Forest winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Nottingham Forest (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm. Fulham (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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