Nottingham Forest 0-1 Everton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nottingham Forest vs Everton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Everton make the trip to The City Ground to face Nottingham Forest in Premier League, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Saturday 2 December 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Nottingham Forest (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Nottingham Forest, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nottingham Forest at The City Ground this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Nottingham Forest are significantly better at The City Ground than their overall form suggests.
Everton have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Everton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Everton have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Nottingham Forest, 1.40 for Everton — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Nottingham Forest have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Everton in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Nottingham Forest lead 0W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Mar 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Nottingham Forest — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at home): BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Everton — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at away): BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nottingham Forest 53% versus Everton 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nottingham Forest 47% | Everton 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nottingham Forest 1.55 xG and Everton 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nottingham Forest attack 0.964 / defence 1.063 | Everton attack 1.066 / defence 0.957. League average goals — home 1.683 / away 1.394. Data: 51 Nottingham Forest games / 51 Everton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 38% | Draw 24% | Everton 39%. Fair-value odds: Nottingham Forest 2.63 | Draw 4.17 | Everton 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 1.58) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Everton are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Everton if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.13 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nottingham Forest 70% | Everton 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nottingham Forest vs Everton | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: The City Ground • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Dec 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 38% | Draw 24% | Everton 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Nottingham Forest 1.55 / Everton 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Nottingham Forest attack 0.964 / def 1.063 | Everton attack 1.066 / def 0.957 | league avg home 1.683 / away 1.394 • Poisson stance: Everton (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Nottingham Forest xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Everton xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nottingham Forest vs Everton kick off?
Nottingham Forest vs Everton kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 2 December 2023 at The City Ground.
What was the final score in Nottingham Forest vs Everton?
Nottingham Forest 0 - 1 Everton.
Where is Nottingham Forest vs Everton being played?
The match is being played at The City Ground.
What competition is Nottingham Forest vs Everton part of?
Nottingham Forest vs Everton is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Nottingham Forest vs Everton?
Our statistical model gives Nottingham Forest a 38% chance of winning, Everton a 39% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Everton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nottingham Forest vs Everton?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Nottingham Forest and Everton will score (BTTS).
Will Nottingham Forest vs Everton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and Everton?
Record (2 meetings): Nottingham Forest 0W | Draws 2 | Everton 0W.
What form are Nottingham Forest and Everton in?
Nottingham Forest (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Everton (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Nottingham Forest's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Everton's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. Flip it around — Everton's attack (1.07x) against Nottingham Forest's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.58.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton Win
38%
2.66
24%
4.22
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Nottingham Forest xG
Total xG
3.13
1.58
Everton xG
2.66
38%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
21%
4.86
21%
4.73
Win to Nil
8%
12.94
8%
12.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.9 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 10.7 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.3 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nottingham Forest vs Everton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Nottingham Forest and Everton expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Nottingham Forest and 1.58 for Everton, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Nottingham Forest vs Everton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Nottingham Forest come into this having played 51 games, going 12W 15D 24L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-L. The sample for Nottingham Forest is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Everton sit at 0.98 PPG from 51 outings (12W 14D 25L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Everton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Nottingham Forest against 0.98 for Everton. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Nottingham Forest's home form reads 10W 9D 6L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.56 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Nottingham Forest are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Everton have taken 1.00 points per game from 25 outings (5W 10D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nottingham Forest come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Nottingham Forest are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Everton are on 0.94 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nottingham Forest
Blended
Everton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nottingham Forest and Everton in coming into this match?
Nottingham Forest have gone 12W 15D 24L in their last 51 games (1.00 PPG), while Everton have gone 12W 14D 25L in their last 51 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nottingham Forest at home or Everton away?
Nottingham Forest's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nottingham Forest at home: 1.56 PPG; Everton away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 30 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Everton have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Everton won 3-0 on 6 Dec 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nottingham Forest have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Everton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Nottingham Forest
2
Draws
5
Everton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and Everton?
From 8 meetings on record, Nottingham Forest have won 1, Everton have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Nottingham Forest and Everton last play each other?
They last met on 30 December 2025, when Nottingham Forest 0-2 Everton.
Who has won more matches between Nottingham Forest and Everton?
Everton have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nottingham Forest 64%, Everton 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Nottingham Forest) and 48% (Everton).
On the defensive side: Everton in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nottingham Forest home games / Everton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nottingham Forest play Everton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Nottingham Forest's games and 52% of Everton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nottingham Forest vs Everton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Nottingham Forest's recent games and 48% of Everton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Everton edge out Nottingham Forest 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton beat Nottingham Forest 0-1 at The City Ground, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nottingham Forest 1.55 xG and Everton 1.58 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Nottingham Forest fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nottingham Forest attack 0.96 / defence 1.06 against Everton attack 1.07 / defence 0.96, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nottingham Forest 38% | Draw 24% | Everton 39%, with Everton to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nottingham Forest 47%, Everton 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nottingham Forest's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Everton's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nottingham Forest 1.00 PPG, Everton 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Everton win broke the near-deadlock. Nottingham Forest (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward. Everton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.