Liverpool 4-3 Fulham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Liverpool at 73% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Liverpool vs Fulham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Anfield plays host to Liverpool versus Fulham in Premier League (matchday 14). Kick-off: Sunday 3 December 2023 at 14:00 UK time.
Current Form
Liverpool's record over their last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Liverpool have posted 9W 1D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Liverpool are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Fulham have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Fulham's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Liverpool's favour (2.10 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Liverpool, 0 for Fulham and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 3 May 2023, ended Liverpool 1–0 Fulham — a Liverpool win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Liverpool half-time and goal-timing data (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 64%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Fulham half-time and goal-timing data (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Liverpool 57% versus Fulham 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Liverpool 63% | Fulham 61%). Note also that Fulham surrender HT leads in 27% of cases while Liverpool recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 64% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Liverpool 2.25 xG and Fulham 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Liverpool attack 1.377 / defence 0.625 | Fulham attack 0.806 / defence 0.981. League average goals — home 1.664 / away 1.382. Liverpool carry an above-average attack rating of 1.377 — their 2.25 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Liverpool have a tight defence (rating 0.625), which is pulling Fulham's projected output down. Data: built from Liverpool's last 51 games and Fulham's last 51.
Result probabilities: Liverpool 73% | Draw 17% | Fulham 10%. Fair-value odds: Liverpool 1.38 | Draw 5.76 | Fulham 10.02. The model has a clear lean to Liverpool (73%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Liverpool are the pick at 73% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 2.94 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Liverpool's last 10 home games and Fulham's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Liverpool 40% (last 10 home games) | Fulham 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Liverpool vs Fulham | Competition: Premier League, matchday 14 | Venue: Anfield • Kick-off: Sunday 3 December 2023 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Liverpool 73% | Draw 17% | Fulham 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Liverpool 2.25 / Fulham 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Liverpool attack 1.377 / def 0.625 | Fulham attack 0.806 / def 0.981 | league avg home 1.664 / away 1.382 • Poisson stance: Liverpool (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.25
Liverpool xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Fulham xG
45%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Liverpool vs Fulham FAQs
What time does Liverpool vs Fulham kick off?
Liverpool vs Fulham kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 3 December 2023 at Anfield.
What was the final score in Liverpool vs Fulham?
Liverpool 4 - 3 Fulham.
Where is Liverpool vs Fulham being played?
The match is being played at Anfield.
What competition is Liverpool vs Fulham part of?
Liverpool vs Fulham is a Premier League fixture (matchday 14) (England).
Who is favourite to win Liverpool vs Fulham?
Our statistical model gives Liverpool a 73% chance of winning, Fulham a 10% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Liverpool the favourite.
Will both teams score in Liverpool vs Fulham?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Liverpool and Fulham will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Liverpool vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Liverpool's attack at 1.38x the league average against Fulham's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 2.25 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fulham's attack (0.81x) against Liverpool's defence (0.62x) — and the away total comes out at 0.70.
These ratings are built from Liverpool's last 51 games and Fulham's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 3-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Liverpool Win
73%
1.38
17%
5.76
10%
10.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
3 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.25
Liverpool xG
Total xG
2.94
0.70
Fulham xG
1.38
73%
Home win
5.76
17%
Draw
10.02
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
50%
2.01
11%
9.46
Win to Nil
36%
2.76
1%
94.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.8 | 8.2 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.3 | 9.3 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.0 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.6 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Liverpool vs Fulham Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Liverpool vs Fulham?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Liverpool and Fulham expected to score?
The model projects 2.25 expected goals for Liverpool and 0.70 for Fulham, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Liverpool vs Fulham?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 51 outings, Liverpool have picked up 1.86 PPG on a 27W 14D 10L record — W-W-D-W-D across the most recent five.
Fulham's form line: 19W 10D 22L from 51 games, 1.31 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-W.
Put side by side, Liverpool are the form team by 0.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fulham.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Liverpool have posted 2.48 PPG from their last 25 home games (19W 5D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.86 PPG overall — Liverpool are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Fulham have gone 8W 4D 13L from their last 25 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Liverpool come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Liverpool are averaging 2.02 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Fulham are on 1.33 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Defensively: Liverpool have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Liverpool
Blended
Fulham
Blended
Liverpool (Home) vs Fulham (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Liverpool
Blended
Fulham
Blended
❓ Liverpool vs Fulham Form FAQs
What form are Liverpool and Fulham in coming into this match?
Liverpool have gone 27W 14D 10L in their last 51 games (1.86 PPG), while Fulham have gone 19W 10D 22L in their last 51 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Liverpool at home or Fulham away?
Liverpool's home record (2.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Liverpool at home: 2.48 PPG; Fulham away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Liverpool or Fulham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Liverpool have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Fulham in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 9 H2H matches between Liverpool and Fulham, the earliest from August 2022. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 12 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Liverpool have gone 3W 2D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Fulham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Liverpool
4
Draws
1
Fulham
Recent Meetings
❓ Liverpool vs Fulham H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Liverpool and Fulham?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Liverpool have won 4, Fulham have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Liverpool and Fulham last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 September 2026: Liverpool 0-0 Fulham.
Who has won more matches between Liverpool and Fulham?
Liverpool have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Liverpool are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Liverpool 48%, Fulham 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Liverpool) and 56% (Fulham). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Liverpool keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Liverpool home games / Fulham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Liverpool vs Fulham Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Liverpool and Fulham matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Liverpool's recent matches and 56% of Fulham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Liverpool and Fulham matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Liverpool's matches and 56% of Fulham's.
Do Liverpool and Fulham matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Liverpool's recent matches and 72% of Fulham's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Liverpool edge out Fulham 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Liverpool beat Fulham 4-3 at Anfield, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Liverpool 2.25 xG and Fulham 0.70 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Liverpool beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Fulham outscored their 0.70 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Liverpool attack 1.38 / defence 0.62 against Fulham attack 0.81 / defence 0.98, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Liverpool 73% | Draw 17% | Fulham 10%, with Liverpool to win its most likely call at 73%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Liverpool 63%, Fulham 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Liverpool's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Fulham's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Liverpool arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.31. That form edge translated into the three points. Liverpool (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.52 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fulham (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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