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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Nottingham Forest run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Burnley.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nottingham Forest beat Burnley 4-1 at City Ground, Regular Season - 33, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nottingham Forest 1.33 xG and Burnley 0.91 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Nottingham Forest beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nottingham Forest attack 0.69 / defence 0.88 against Burnley attack 0.83 / defence 1.42, drawn from 70/32 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nottingham Forest 44% | Draw 32% | Burnley 23%, with Nottingham Forest to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nottingham Forest 50%, Burnley 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nottingham Forest's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Burnley's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nottingham Forest 1.40 PPG, Burnley 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nottingham Forest win broke the near-deadlock. Nottingham Forest (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm. Burnley (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights