Nottingham Forest 1-1 Aston Villa – Result & Analysis

Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Nottingham Forest take on Aston Villa.

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Analysis & Preview

Aston Villa travel to City Ground to take on Nottingham Forest in Premier League (matchday 32). The game is scheduled for Sunday 12 April 2026 at 15:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Nottingham Forest have gone 2W 5D 3L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

At home, Nottingham Forest have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Aston Villa stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Aston Villa away from home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Nottingham Forest 1.10 PPG, Aston Villa 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 7 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Nottingham Forest, 4 for Aston Villa and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.1 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 3 Jan 2026, ended Nottingham Forest 1–3 Aston Villa — a Aston Villa win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.1 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Nottingham Forest trading profile (last 69 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Aston Villa trading profile (last 69 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 47%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nottingham Forest 44% versus Aston Villa 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nottingham Forest 51% | Aston Villa 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Nottingham Forest 1.01 xG and Aston Villa 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nottingham Forest attack 0.673 / defence 0.874 | Aston Villa attack 0.979 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.390 / away 1.253. Nottingham Forest's attack rating of 0.673 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.01. Data: built from Nottingham Forest's last 69 games and Aston Villa's last 69.

Result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 31% | Draw 35% | Aston Villa 34%. Fair-value odds: Nottingham Forest 3.21 | Draw 2.89 | Aston Villa 2.92. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

Poisson projects 2.09 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 65% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.1 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 56%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Nottingham Forest 30% (last 10 home games) | Aston Villa 70% (last 10 away games).

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