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Shock result as Sunderland defy the odds to beat Newcastle 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sunderland beat Newcastle 1-2 at St. James' Park, Regular Season - 31, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Newcastle 1.84 xG and Sunderland 0.97 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Newcastle fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Sunderland outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Newcastle attack 1.23 / defence 1.24 against Sunderland attack 0.63 / defence 1.07, drawn from 68/30 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Newcastle 56% | Draw 26% | Sunderland 18%, with Newcastle to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Sunderland win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Newcastle 62%, Sunderland 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Newcastle's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Sunderland's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Newcastle 1.59 PPG, Sunderland 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sunderland win broke the near-deadlock. Newcastle (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Sunderland (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights