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Shock result as Fulham defy the odds to beat Newcastle 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fulham beat Newcastle 1-2 at St. James' Park, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Newcastle 1.54 xG and Fulham 1.35 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Newcastle attack 1.14 / defence 0.86 against Fulham attack 1.01 / defence 0.90, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Newcastle 41% | Draw 27% | Fulham 32%, with Newcastle to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Fulham win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Newcastle 67%, Fulham 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Newcastle's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Fulham's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Newcastle 1.66 PPG, Fulham 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fulham win broke the near-deadlock. Newcastle (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.27 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights