Newcastle 1-2 Fulham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Newcastle (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Newcastle face Fulham.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Newcastle and Fulham meet at St. James' Park in Premier League, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 1 February 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Newcastle's overall Premier League record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Newcastle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Newcastle have posted 5W 2D 3L at St. James' Park — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.70 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at St. James' Park this season.
Fulham (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D D L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fulham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Fulham have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Newcastle's 2.20 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Fulham's 1.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Across 5 previous meetings, Newcastle are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 1, with 0 draws in between.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2024, ended 1–3 with Fulham winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Newcastle and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Newcastle goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 30 at home): BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
Fulham goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 30 at away): BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Newcastle 59% versus Fulham 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Newcastle 67% | Fulham 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Newcastle 1.54 xG and Fulham 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Newcastle attack 1.144 / defence 0.857 | Fulham attack 1.015 / defence 0.902. League average goals — home 1.489 / away 1.553. Data: 61 Newcastle games / 61 Fulham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Newcastle 41% | Draw 27% | Fulham 32%. Fair-value odds: Newcastle 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Fulham 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Newcastle as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Newcastle if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.89 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Newcastle 40% | Fulham 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Newcastle vs Fulham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: St. James' Park • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Feb 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Newcastle 41% | Draw 27% | Fulham 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Newcastle 1.54 / Fulham 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Newcastle attack 1.144 / def 0.857 | Fulham attack 1.015 / def 0.902 | league avg home 1.489 / away 1.553 • Poisson stance: Newcastle (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Newcastle xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Fulham xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Newcastle vs Fulham kick off?
Newcastle vs Fulham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 1 February 2025 at St. James' Park.
What was the final score in Newcastle vs Fulham?
Newcastle 1 - 2 Fulham.
Where is Newcastle vs Fulham being played?
The match is being played at St. James' Park.
What competition is Newcastle vs Fulham part of?
Newcastle vs Fulham is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Newcastle vs Fulham?
Our statistical model gives Newcastle a 41% chance of winning, Fulham a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Newcastle the favourite.
Will both teams score in Newcastle vs Fulham?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Newcastle and Fulham will score (BTTS).
Will Newcastle vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Newcastle and Fulham?
Record (5 meetings): Newcastle 4W | Draws 0 | Fulham 1W.
What form are Newcastle and Fulham in?
Newcastle (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Fulham (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Newcastle's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Fulham's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. Flip it around — Fulham's attack (1.01x) against Newcastle's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Newcastle Win
41%
2.47
27%
3.68
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Newcastle xG
Total xG
2.89
1.35
Fulham xG
2.47
41%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
26%
3.86
22%
4.65
Win to Nil
11%
9.52
7%
14.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.5 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.6 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.9 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Newcastle vs Fulham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Newcastle and Fulham expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Newcastle and 1.35 for Fulham, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Newcastle vs Fulham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 61 outings, Newcastle have picked up 1.66 PPG on a 30W 11D 20L record — W-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Newcastle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fulham's form line: 21W 17D 23L from 61 games, 1.31 PPG, last five D-D-L-W-L. The sample for Fulham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.66 PPG for Newcastle against 1.31 for Fulham. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Newcastle have posted 2.00 PPG from 30 outings (18W 6D 6L).
On the road, Fulham have gone 8W 10D 12L from 30 away games — 1.13 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Newcastle come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Newcastle are averaging 2.07 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Fulham are on 1.46 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Newcastle
Blended
Fulham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Newcastle and Fulham in coming into this match?
Newcastle have gone 30W 11D 20L in their last 61 games (1.66 PPG), while Fulham have gone 21W 17D 23L in their last 61 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Newcastle at home or Fulham away?
Newcastle's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Newcastle at home: 2.00 PPG; Fulham away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 24 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Newcastle won 1-4 on 1 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Newcastle have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fulham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Newcastle
0
Draws
3
Fulham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Newcastle and Fulham?
From 8 meetings on record, Newcastle have won 5, Fulham have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Newcastle and Fulham last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Fulham 2-0 Newcastle.
Who has won more matches between Newcastle and Fulham?
Newcastle have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Newcastle 50%, Fulham 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Newcastle) and 53% (Fulham). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Newcastle keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Newcastle home games / Fulham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Newcastle play Fulham?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Newcastle's games and 60% of Fulham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Newcastle vs Fulham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Newcastle's matches and 53% of Fulham's.
Shock result as Fulham defy the odds to beat Newcastle 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fulham beat Newcastle 1-2 at St. James' Park, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Newcastle 1.54 xG and Fulham 1.35 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Newcastle attack 1.14 / defence 0.86 against Fulham attack 1.01 / defence 0.90, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Newcastle 41% | Draw 27% | Fulham 32%, with Newcastle to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Fulham win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Newcastle 67%, Fulham 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Newcastle's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Fulham's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Newcastle 1.66 PPG, Fulham 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fulham win broke the near-deadlock. Newcastle (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.27 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.