Liverpool 4-2 Tottenham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Liverpool at 59% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Liverpool vs Tottenham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Tottenham travel to Anfield to take on Liverpool in Premier League (matchday 36). The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 May 2024 at 16:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Liverpool have gone 5W 3D 2L — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: D L W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Liverpool's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Tottenham — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Tottenham have posted 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Liverpool carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Liverpool have won 2, Tottenham 1, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.8 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 30 Sep 2023, ended Liverpool 1–2 Tottenham — a Tottenham win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Liverpool trading profile (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 61%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Tottenham trading profile (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Liverpool 60% and Tottenham 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Liverpool 62% | Tottenham 69%). Note also that Tottenham surrender HT leads in 30% of cases while Liverpool recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 61% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Liverpool 2.11 xG and Tottenham 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Liverpool attack 1.154 / defence 0.813 | Tottenham attack 0.953 / defence 1.030. League average goals — home 1.772 / away 1.476. Data: built from Liverpool's last 73 games and Tottenham's last 72.
Result probabilities: Liverpool 59% | Draw 22% | Tottenham 19%. Fair-value odds: Liverpool 1.70 | Draw 4.53 | Tottenham 5.21. The model has a clear lean to Liverpool (59%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (2.11 / 1.14) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Liverpool as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.25 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Liverpool's last 10 home games and Tottenham's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Liverpool 80% (last 10 home games) | Tottenham 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Liverpool vs Tottenham | Competition: Premier League, matchday 36 | Venue: Anfield • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Liverpool 59% | Draw 22% | Tottenham 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Liverpool 2.11 / Tottenham 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Liverpool attack 1.154 / def 0.813 | Tottenham attack 0.953 / def 1.030 | league avg home 1.772 / away 1.476 • Poisson stance: Liverpool (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.11
Liverpool xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Tottenham xG
61%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Liverpool vs Tottenham FAQs
What time does Liverpool vs Tottenham kick off?
Liverpool vs Tottenham kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Anfield.
What was the final score in Liverpool vs Tottenham?
Liverpool 4 - 2 Tottenham.
Where is Liverpool vs Tottenham being played?
The match is being played at Anfield.
What competition is Liverpool vs Tottenham part of?
Liverpool vs Tottenham is a Premier League fixture (matchday 36) (England).
Who is favourite to win Liverpool vs Tottenham?
Our statistical model gives Liverpool a 59% chance of winning, Tottenham a 19% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Liverpool the favourite.
Will both teams score in Liverpool vs Tottenham?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Liverpool and Tottenham will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Liverpool vs Tottenham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Liverpool's attack rating (1.15) and Tottenham's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 2.11 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Tottenham's attack versus Liverpool's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Liverpool's last 73 games and Tottenham's last 72 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Liverpool Win
59%
1.70
22%
4.53
19%
5.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
2 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.11
Liverpool xG
Total xG
3.25
1.14
Tottenham xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.53
22%
Draw
5.21
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
12%
8.22
Win to Nil
19%
5.34
2%
42.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Liverpool vs Tottenham Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Liverpool vs Tottenham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Liverpool and Tottenham expected to score?
The model projects 2.11 expected goals for Liverpool and 1.14 for Tottenham, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Liverpool vs Tottenham?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Liverpool's recent record stands at 41W 18D 13L from 72 games, a 1.96 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-D in the last five.
Tottenham, meanwhile, have gone 36W 12D 24L across 72 games — 1.67 PPG, with D-W-L-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Liverpool on 1.96 PPG, Tottenham on 1.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Liverpool have managed 26W 8D 2L from their last 36 home games — 2.39 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.96 PPG overall — Liverpool are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Tottenham's away record stands at 12W 11D 13L across their last 36 away games, a 1.31 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Liverpool come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Liverpool are averaging 2.08 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Tottenham are on 1.90 scored and 1.62 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Tottenham in 68%.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Liverpool
Current Season
Tottenham
Current Season
Liverpool (Home) vs Tottenham (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Liverpool
Current Season
Tottenham
Current Season
❓ Liverpool vs Tottenham Form FAQs
What form are Liverpool and Tottenham in coming into this match?
Liverpool have gone 41W 18D 13L in their last 72 games (1.96 PPG), while Tottenham have gone 36W 12D 24L in their last 72 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Liverpool at home or Tottenham away?
Liverpool's home record (2.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Liverpool at home: 2.39 PPG; Tottenham away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Liverpool or Tottenham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Liverpool have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Tottenham in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from December 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 15 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 27 Apr 2025, when Liverpool won Liverpool 5-1 Tottenham.
Liverpool's record when hosting Tottenham specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Liverpool
3
Draws
1
Tottenham
Recent Meetings
❓ Liverpool vs Tottenham H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Liverpool and Tottenham?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Liverpool have won 6, Tottenham have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Liverpool and Tottenham last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 March 2026: Liverpool 1-1 Tottenham.
Who has won more matches between Liverpool and Tottenham?
Liverpool have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Liverpool are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 88% of those situations.
Tottenham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 42% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Liverpool 58%, Tottenham 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Liverpool and 67% for Tottenham. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Liverpool keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Liverpool home games / Tottenham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Liverpool vs Tottenham Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Liverpool and Tottenham matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Liverpool's games and 64% of Tottenham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Liverpool and Tottenham matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Liverpool's matches and 67% of Tottenham's.
Do Liverpool and Tottenham matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of Liverpool's recent matches and 81% of Tottenham's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Liverpool cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Tottenham.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Liverpool beat Tottenham 4-2 at Anfield, Regular Season - 36, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Liverpool 2.11 xG and Tottenham 1.14 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Liverpool beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Tottenham outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Liverpool attack 1.15 / defence 0.81 against Tottenham attack 0.95 / defence 1.03, drawn from 73/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Liverpool 59% | Draw 22% | Tottenham 19%, with Liverpool to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Liverpool 62%, Tottenham 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Liverpool's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Tottenham's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Liverpool 1.96 PPG, Tottenham 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Liverpool win broke the near-deadlock. Liverpool (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.47 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Tottenham (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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