Brentford 0-0 Fulham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Brentford at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Brentford vs Fulham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 36 as Brentford welcome Fulham to Gtech Community Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 4 May 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Brentford have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Gtech Community Stadium, Brentford have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fulham stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Fulham away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Brentford 1.00 PPG, Fulham 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Brentford register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Fulham in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Brentford, 1 for Fulham and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2023, ended 3–0 with Brentford winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Brentford in-play and half-time data (73 games, 36 at home): BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Fulham in-play and half-time data (73 games, 36 at away): BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brentford 59% versus Fulham 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brentford 55% | Fulham 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brentford 1.65 xG and Fulham 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brentford attack 0.837 / defence 1.030 | Fulham attack 0.919 / defence 1.120. League average goals — home 1.763 / away 1.487. Data: 73 Brentford games / 73 Fulham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brentford 42% | Draw 26% | Fulham 32%. Fair-value odds: Brentford 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | Fulham 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.65 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Brentford at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Brentford offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.06 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Brentford 80% | Fulham 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brentford vs Fulham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Gtech Community Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 May 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brentford 42% | Draw 26% | Fulham 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG Brentford 1.65 / Fulham 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Brentford attack 0.837 / def 1.030 | Fulham attack 0.919 / def 1.120 | league avg home 1.763 / away 1.487 • Poisson stance: Brentford (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Brentford xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Fulham xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brentford vs Fulham kick off?
Brentford vs Fulham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 4 May 2024 at Gtech Community Stadium.
What was the final score in Brentford vs Fulham?
Brentford 0 - 0 Fulham.
Where is Brentford vs Fulham being played?
The match is being played at Gtech Community Stadium.
What competition is Brentford vs Fulham part of?
Brentford vs Fulham is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Brentford vs Fulham?
Our statistical model gives Brentford a 42% chance of winning, Fulham a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Brentford the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brentford vs Fulham?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Brentford and Fulham will score (BTTS).
Will Brentford vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brentford and Fulham?
Record (3 meetings): Brentford 2W | Draws 0 | Fulham 1W.
What form are Brentford and Fulham in?
Brentford (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Fulham (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Brentford's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Fulham's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. The same calculation in reverse, Fulham's attack versus Brentford's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Brentford Win
42%
2.36
26%
3.89
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Brentford xG
Total xG
3.06
1.41
Fulham xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
24%
4.09
19%
5.22
Win to Nil
10%
9.63
6%
16.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.6 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.9 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.0 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brentford vs Fulham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Brentford and Fulham expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Brentford and 1.41 for Fulham, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Brentford vs Fulham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Brentford come into this having played 73 games, going 24W 22D 27L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-L.
On the other side, Fulham sit at 1.30 PPG from 73 outings (27W 14D 32L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Brentford on 1.29 PPG, Fulham on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Brentford's home form reads 15W 13D 8L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.61 PPG return.
Away from home, Fulham have taken 1.03 points per game from 36 outings (10W 7D 19L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Brentford come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Brentford are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Fulham are on 1.45 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 73 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brentford
Current Season
Fulham
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brentford and Fulham in coming into this match?
Brentford have gone 24W 22D 27L in their last 73 games (1.29 PPG), while Fulham have gone 27W 14D 32L in their last 73 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brentford at home or Fulham away?
Brentford's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brentford at home: 1.61 PPG; Fulham away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Brentford and Fulham runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Aug 2023, when Brentford won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Brentford's record when hosting Fulham specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Brentford
2
Draws
4
Fulham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brentford and Fulham?
From 8 meetings on record, Brentford have won 2, Fulham have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Brentford and Fulham last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Brentford 0-0 Fulham.
Who has won more matches between Brentford and Fulham?
Fulham have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brentford 67%, Fulham 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Brentford) and 61% (Fulham). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fulham in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brentford home games / Fulham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brentford play Fulham?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Brentford's games and 56% of Fulham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Brentford vs Fulham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Brentford's matches and 61% of Fulham's.
Stalemate at Brentford's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Gtech Community Stadium, Regular Season - 36, as Brentford and Fulham drew 0-0 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brentford 1.65 xG and Fulham 1.41 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Brentford fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Fulham landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brentford attack 0.84 / defence 1.03 against Fulham attack 0.92 / defence 1.12, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brentford 42% | Draw 26% | Fulham 32%, with Brentford to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brentford 55%, Fulham 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brentford's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Fulham's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Brentford 1.29 PPG, Fulham 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Brentford (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.72 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Fulham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.