Burnley 1-4 Newcastle – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Newcastle at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Burnley vs Newcastle encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Newcastle make the trip to Turf Moor to face Burnley in Premier League, Regular Season - 36. The match kicks off on Saturday 4 May 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Burnley have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D L D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Turf Moor, Burnley have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Newcastle's overall Premier League record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Newcastle away from home this season: 3W 0D 7L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Newcastle are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Across the last 3 meetings, Newcastle have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to Burnley's 0, with 0 draws in the mix.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Sep 2023, ended 0–2 with Newcastle winning.
It is worth noting that Newcastle have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Burnley goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Newcastle goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 35 at away): BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 54% versus Newcastle 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 58% | Newcastle 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 1.25 xG and Newcastle 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.661 / defence 1.228 | Newcastle attack 0.967 / defence 1.074. League average goals — home 1.763 / away 1.487. Burnley's attack strength of 0.661 is below the league average — the 1.25 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 35 Burnley games / 72 Newcastle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burnley 26% | Draw 25% | Newcastle 49%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 3.85 | Draw 4.00 | Newcastle 2.04. Newcastle hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.25 / 1.77) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Newcastle as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Newcastle if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Burnley 50% | Newcastle 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Newcastle | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Saturday 4 May 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 26% | Draw 25% | Newcastle 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Burnley 1.25 / Newcastle 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 0.661 / def 1.228 | Newcastle attack 0.967 / def 1.074 | league avg home 1.763 / away 1.487 • Poisson stance: Newcastle (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
1.77
Newcastle xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burnley vs Newcastle kick off?
Burnley vs Newcastle kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 4 May 2024 at Turf Moor.
What was the final score in Burnley vs Newcastle?
Burnley 1 - 4 Newcastle.
Where is Burnley vs Newcastle being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Newcastle part of?
Burnley vs Newcastle is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Newcastle?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 26% chance of winning, Newcastle a 49% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Newcastle the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Newcastle?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Burnley and Newcastle will score (BTTS).
Will Burnley vs Newcastle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Newcastle?
Record (3 meetings): Burnley 0W | Draws 0 | Newcastle 3W.
What form are Burnley and Newcastle in?
Burnley (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-W-D. Newcastle (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Burnley's attack rating (0.66) and Newcastle's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Newcastle's attack (0.97x) against Burnley's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.77.
These ratings are built from 35/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Newcastle Win
26%
3.82
25%
3.97
49%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Burnley xG
Total xG
3.02
1.77
Newcastle xG
3.82
26%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.06
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
17%
5.85
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
4%
22.31
14%
7.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 8.6 | 7.6 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.8 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.8 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Newcastle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Burnley and Newcastle expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Burnley and 1.77 for Newcastle, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Newcastle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Burnley come into this having played 72 games, going 31W 18D 23L for 1.54 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-W-D.
On the other side, Newcastle sit at 1.72 PPG from 72 outings (35W 19D 18L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.54 PPG for Burnley against 1.72 for Newcastle. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Burnley's home form reads 16W 7D 12L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Newcastle have taken 1.31 points per game from 35 outings (12W 10D 13L). That's a step down from their 1.72 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Newcastle's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Burnley are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Newcastle are on 1.97 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Current Season
Newcastle
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burnley and Newcastle in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 31W 18D 23L in their last 72 games (1.54 PPG), while Newcastle have gone 35W 19D 18L in their last 72 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or Newcastle away?
Burnley's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 1.57 PPG; Newcastle away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Burnley or Newcastle been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Newcastle in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 30 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Newcastle have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Newcastle won 1-4 on 4 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Burnley have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Newcastle — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Burnley
0
Draws
6
Newcastle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Newcastle?
From 6 meetings on record, Burnley have won 0, Newcastle have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Burnley and Newcastle last play each other?
They last met on 30 December 2025, when Burnley 1-3 Newcastle.
Who has won more matches between Burnley and Newcastle?
Newcastle have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Burnley see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 46%, Newcastle 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Burnley and 63% for Newcastle. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Burnley keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Newcastle in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Newcastle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burnley play Newcastle?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Burnley's recent matches and 60% of Newcastle's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burnley vs Newcastle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Burnley's matches and 63% of Newcastle's.
Dominant Newcastle run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Burnley.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Newcastle beat Burnley 1-4 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 36, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 1.25 xG and Newcastle 1.77 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Newcastle outscored their 1.77 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.66 / defence 1.23 against Newcastle attack 0.97 / defence 1.07, drawn from 35/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burnley 26% | Draw 25% | Newcastle 49%, with Newcastle to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 58%, Newcastle 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burnley's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Newcastle's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Burnley 1.54 PPG, Newcastle 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Newcastle win broke the near-deadlock. Burnley (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Newcastle (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.66 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.