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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Liverpool cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Leicester.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Liverpool beat Leicester 3-1 at Anfield, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Liverpool 2.88 xG and Leicester 0.77 xG, a combined 3.65. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Liverpool attack 1.18 / defence 0.70 against Leicester attack 0.74 / defence 1.61, drawn from 54/17 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Liverpool 79% | Draw 15% | Leicester 6%, with Liverpool to win its most likely call at 79%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Liverpool 65%, Leicester 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Liverpool's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Leicester's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Liverpool arrived the stronger side — 2.24 PPG against 1.61. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Leicester (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights